According to the latest Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) subscription data, the picture for BSNL subscribers has worsened: state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) saw its active user ratio drop sharply to 56.36% in March 2026.

This marks a steep decline from the 63.37% active subscriber rate it held just a year prior in March 2025. It reveals a growing gap between the company’s total paper subscribers and the actual number of people actively keeping their BSNL SIMs inside live devices.

The structural details behind this metric expose a significant operational paradox:

1. The Core Divergence: Dead SIMs vs. Total Base

While BSNL’s actual active subscriber percentage collapsed, its surface-level data showed a slight gain. This mismatch highlights how telecom reporting can obscure reality:

  • The Total Base Illusion: TRAI data shows BSNL’s gross wireless subscriber base actually grew marginally over the fiscal year, moving from 91 million in March 2025 to 92.9 million in March 2026.
  • The VLR Reality: The Visitor Location Register (VLR)—which tracks active, power-on mobile connections—reveals that nearly half of those 92.9 million SIM cards are either sitting completely dormant in drawers or are being kept purely as secondary, inactive backup numbers.

2. The ARPU Paradox: Why Metrics Are Rising

The drop in active users has caused a strange statistical anomaly in BSNL’s financial reports. The Ministry of Communications revealed that BSNL’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) jumped an impressive 42%, climbing from ₹71 in FY25 to ₹101 in FY26.

However, industry analysts note that this gain is largely a mathematical illusion rather than a sign of a massive turnaround:

The Shrinking Denominator Effect: ARPU is calculated by dividing total revenue by the number of active users. Because BSNL’s active user base (the denominator) shrank so dramatically while a core group of loyal, higher-spending users stayed on, the mathematical average naturally spiked.

This is backed up by BSNL’s actual financial performance: its full-year operational revenue grew by a flat 1.7% to ₹212 billion ($2.23 billion)—a metric that completely contradicts a true 42% organic expansion in user spending.

3. Financial Headwinds and Losses

The combination of a shrinking active base and heavy capital overhead has severely strained BSNL’s balance sheet:

  • Widening Losses: BSNL’s consolidated net loss for the full fiscal year ended March 2026 doubled to ₹47.4 billion ($500.6 million), compared to a loss of ₹22.5 billion in FY25.
  • Rising Expenses: The bottom line was weighed down by soaring network operational costs, rising employee-related expenses, and higher depreciation fees as the company tries to build out its physical footprint.
  • Q4 Slip: The state-run telco slipped to a net loss of ₹12.7 billion in Q4 FY26, down from a paper profit in Q4 FY25 that had been artificially supported by one-off accounting adjustments.

4. The 4G Transition Race

To reverse this decline, BSNL is banking heavily on its ongoing infrastructure migration. Following its pan-India launch late last year, the company is continuing to deploy domestic 4G networks to transition users off legacy 2G and 3G infrastructure.

While the 4G rollout has driven localized spikes in data consumption, BSNL faces intense competition. Its ₹101 ARPU remains drastically below private sector giants like Bharti Airtel (₹257) and Reliance Jio (₹214), leaving BSNL with significantly less free cash flow to fund future network expansions. To stay competitive, the company is actively exploring infrastructure-sharing agreements with Vodafone Idea to reduce equipment duplication and protect its remaining 7.34% wireless market share. The pressure comes as rivals double down on capital markets—see our coverage of how Jio plans to repay $3 billion in debt using IPO funds.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many BSNL subscribers are there in India?

Per TRAI data, BSNL’s gross wireless subscriber base grew marginally to 92.9 million in March 2026, up from 91 million a year earlier. However, only about 56.36% of those connections were active on the Visitor Location Register (VLR), meaning nearly half the SIMs are dormant or used as backup numbers.

Why did BSNL’s active user ratio fall to 56.3%?

The active user ratio measures how many of BSNL’s total SIMs are actually live on the network. While the total base edged up, a large share of those SIMs sit unused, dragging the active ratio down from 63.37% in March 2025 to 56.36% in March 2026 as users keep BSNL only as a secondary connection.

Why did BSNL’s ARPU rise if subscribers are leaving?

BSNL’s ARPU rose 42% from ₹71 to ₹101, but analysts call this a shrinking-denominator effect. Because the active user base fell sharply while loyal, higher-spending users stayed, the average per-user figure rose even though full-year operational revenue grew only 1.7%, indicating no true 42% jump in real spending.