A new Australian longitudinal study involving over 36,000 adults aged 40–69, tracked for nearly 14 years, revealed that consuming one can of artificially sweetened soda per day—such as Diet Coke or Pepsi Max—was associated with a 38% increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Even after adjusting for body weight, diet, and lifestyle, the link remained strong, hinting at a direct metabolic effect from artificial sweeteners. Interestingly, this risk exceeded the 23% increase observed among those consuming sugary sodas.
📈 Evidence From Other Studies on Artificial Sweeteners
- A multi-cohort meta-analysis published in Frontiers in Nutrition found that artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) were associated with a 32% higher diabetes risk (pooled RR 1.32; 95% CI 1.11–1.56), even after accounting for adiposity.
- In the MESA cohort, adults drinking diet sodas daily faced a 67% greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to non-drinkers (HR 1.67), independent of BMI.
- Another large European study (NutriNet‑Santé) involving over 105,000 participants showed that high intake of artificial sweeteners (aspartame, acesulfame-K, and sucralose) correlated with a 69% greater diabetes risk (HR 1.69; 95% CI 1.45–1.97).
These findings align with research from the E3N-Provence (France) showing that frequent users of artificial sweeteners had a 33% increased risk of type 2 diabetes, independent of BMI.
⚠️ Why Expect a Surprising Risk from “Diet” Drinks?
Though designed to reduce sugar intake, artificial sweeteners may:
- Disrupt metabolic pathways, influencing insulin sensitivity or blood glucose control
- Alter gut microbiome, triggering glucose intolerance and inflammation, as shown in animal and human studies
- Increase cravings for sweet foods, leading to compensatory calorie intake The Sun
These effects may contribute to metabolic dysfunction even without added calories.
✅ At-a-Glance Summary
| Detail | Finding |
|---|---|
| One can/day diet soda risk | +38% type 2 diabetes (Australian study) |
| Sugary soda risk | +23% under same study |
| Meta-analysis (pooled risk) | +32% higher T2D (ASBs) |
| MESA cohort | +67% T2D risk with daily consumption |
| NutriNet‑Santé cohort | HR ~1.69 (~69%) with high sweetener intake |
🧠 What Health Experts Suggest
These findings challenge the long-held assumption that diet sodas are benign or healthier alternatives. Experts recommend rethinking beverage guidelines: along with sugary drinks, artificially sweetened beverages may also need to be limited based on emerging metabolic concerns.
🧭 Bottom Line
While diet sodas offer zero calories, they may not be metabolically harmless. The latest research shows even moderate consumption—like one can per day—could raise type 2 diabetes risk by nearly 40%. Moderation and awareness of broader dietary patterns remain key.
✅ Tips for Consumers
- Treat diet sodas as occasional indulgences, not daily beverages
- Prefer water, herbal tea, or sparkling water with fruit infusion for hydration
- Focus on whole-food-based diets rich in fiber and low in processed foods
