On June 13, 2025, crude oil futures experienced a dramatic surge following Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and nuclear targets. The risk of supply disruption from Iran triggered a sharp jump in prices:
- WTI crude climbed as much as 14% intraday, settling around 8.5% higher at approximately $74/barrel
- Brent crude also rallied by up to 13–14%, before paring gains to roughly 7.5%, trading near $75/barrel
🌍 Why Prices Spiked
- Heightened geopolitical risk: Fears of Iranian retaliation—including potential blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles ~20–30% of global seaborne oil transit—spiked the risk premium on oil supplies
- Global market ripple: The attack triggered a “risk-off” sentiment, sending investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, while commodity-linked equities saw sharp moves
📊 Market Impact Snapshot
| Market | Reaction |
|---|---|
| Oil | WTI and Brent jumped up to 14% intraday, settling ~8–9% higher |
| Stock Markets | U.S. futures dropped ~1–1.5%, Asia & Europe markets tumbled |
| Gold & FX | Gold rose ~1%; safe‑haven currencies like USD, CHF, JPY strengthened |
⚠️ What This Could Mean
- Inflation concerns: Higher energy costs could pressure consumer prices and complicate central banks’ rate decisions
- Supply chain risks: If Iran retaliates forcefully—especially targeting oil shipping routes—prices could climb further, echoing shocks from past disruptions theaustralian.com.au.
- Temporary vs. sustained jump: Analysts note that markets often revert after initial spikes, but a prolonged conflict could maintain elevated price levels .
🔮 What’s Ahead
- Short-term outlook: Watch for Iran’s next move—any targeting of oil infrastructure or tanker routes could push prices toward $80–100+/barrel .
- Medium-term impact: Persistent geopolitical risk may curb equity markets, ramp up inflation, and delay central bank rate cuts.
- Long-term scenario: Absent a broader conflict, heightened uncertainty could fade, but geopolitical threats remain a recurring wildcard for crude.
