In a significant move to reset bilateral ties and bolster India’s clean energy ambitions, India and Canada are set to finalize a 10-year uranium supply deal valued at approximately C$2.8 billion (roughly ₹17,000 crore).
The agreement is expected to be formally signed during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upcoming state visit to India in early March 2026. This deal marks the first major high-level diplomatic and economic breakthrough since relations were strained in 2023.
1. Core Details of the Agreement
The partnership centers on a massive fuel supply chain that will support India’s growing fleet of nuclear reactors over the next decade.
- Primary Supplier: Cameco Corporation, Canada’s largest uranium producer based in Saskatchewan, will be the lead supplier.
- Volume: The contract covers the delivery of 100 million pounds of uranium over 10 years.
- Scale of Growth: This agreement is nearly eight times the value and twice the duration of the previous $350 million deal from 2015, which expired in 2020.
- Strategic Pricing: The deal includes a “fixed-escalation” price structure, providing India with budget certainty and protection against the current global uranium price surge (which recently crossed $100 per pound).
2. Why This Matters for India
The deal is a cornerstone for India’s long-term energy security as it shifts away from fossil fuels.
- Fueling the 100 GW Goal: India aims to achieve 100 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2047. The Canadian supply will specifically fuel India’s pressurized heavy-water reactors (PHWRs).
- Diversification: By securing a massive 10-year supply from Canada, India reduces its reliance on other major suppliers like Russia and Kazakhstan.
- Net-Zero Ambitions: The assured supply allows India to commit to new reactor construction projects with confidence, supporting its target of cutting carbon emissions.
3. The Diplomatic “Thaw”
The uranium deal is being used as a vehicle to repair the India-Canada relationship under the new leadership of PM Mark Carney.
- Resetting Ties: PM Carney, a former Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, has emphasized economic pragmatism over political friction.
- Beyond Uranium: During the March visit, the two nations are also expected to sign agreements on Artificial Intelligence (AI), Critical Minerals, and Liquid Natural Gas (LNG).
- CEPA Revival: Formal negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) are slated to restart in March, with a target to double bilateral trade to $60 billion by 2030.
4. Safeguards and Compliance
To address long-standing non-proliferation concerns, the deal operates under a strict regulatory framework:
- IAEA Oversight: The uranium is strictly for peaceful civilian use and subject to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection protocols.
- End-Use Verification: Bilateral monitoring arrangements will track the supply chain to ensure the material is not diverted to non-safeguarded military facilities.
Conclusion: A Strategic Victory
The C$2.8 billion uranium deal is a “win-win” for both nations. For Canada, it secures a massive, stable export market and reduces reliance on North American demand. For India, it provides the literal fuel for its industrial and green energy future. This partnership signals that, in the face of global energy deficits, economic and energy security have once again become the primary drivers of international diplomacy.
