In a series of events being described by Silicon Valley insiders as a “talent-driven crisis,” Thinking Machines Lab, the AI startup founded by former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati, is facing severe headwinds in its attempt to close a $50 billion funding round.
The turmoil stems from a high-profile “talent raid” by OpenAI, which has reportedly reclaimed half of Thinking Machines’ founding team in less than a year.
The “OpenAI Raid” and Talent Exodus
Just as Thinking Machines was finalizing its $50 billion valuation (a fourfold jump from its $12 billion valuation in July 2025), a chaotic all-hands meeting on January 14, 2026, signaled a massive internal fracture:
- The Firing: Mira Murati reportedly fired CTO and co-founder Barret Zoph for poor performance and allegedly negotiating with competitors.
- The Walkouts: While the meeting was still in progress, co-founder Luke Metz and founding member Sam Schoenholz resigned via Slack.
- The Return: Within hours, OpenAI executive Fidji Simo confirmed that all three had rejoined OpenAI. Two more researchers, Lia Guy and Ian O’Connell, followed shortly after.
- The Legacy: Of the six original co-founders, only three remain. This follows the October 2024 departure of co-founder Andrew Tulloch to Meta.
Investor Confidence Shaken
The exodus has “rattled” current and potential backers, putting the massive $50 billion round in serious jeopardy.
- The “Hype vs. Reality” Gap: Thinking Machines has released only one product—the Tinker API (a tool for model fine-tuning)—since its launch. Investors are now questioning if a $50 billion price tag is justifiable for a company that has just lost its primary technical leadership.
- Retention vs. Compensation: Reports suggest that while Thinking Machines offers “paper billions,” established giants like Google, Meta, and OpenAI are luring away elite researchers with $100M+ cash-heavy compensation packages and accelerated vesting.
Leadership Pivot: A New CTO
In an effort to stabilize the ship, Murati announced on January 19, 2026, the appointment of Soumith Chintala as the new Chief Technology Officer.
- Who is he? Chintala is the co-creator of PyTorch, the world’s most popular open-source machine learning framework.
- The Goal: By bringing in a “titan” of the AI infrastructure world, Thinking Machines hopes to convince investors that its technical roadmap is still viable despite the OpenAI defections.
| Metric | Status (July 2025) | Status (January 2026) |
| Valuation | $12 Billion | $50–$60 Billion (In Jeopardy) |
| Funding Raised | $2 Billion | $50B Round Pending |
| Core Product | Stealth | Tinker API (Released Oct 2025) |
| Co-Founder Count | 6 | 3 remaining |
Conclusion: A Test of Pedigree
The next 30 days will determine if Thinking Machines can close its round. If investors like Andreessen Horowitz, Accel, and Nvidia follow through, it will confirm that Mira Murati’s personal pedigree is enough to sustain a $50B valuation. If they pull back, it may signal the end of the “pre-product” AI mega-round era.
