SoftBank Group reported a significant turnaround in its fiscal third-quarter results, driven primarily by its aggressive bet on AI. The Japanese conglomerate’s Vision Fund recorded a quarterly gain of $2.4 billion (approx. ₹20,100 crore), largely fueled by the surging valuation of OpenAI.
This gain was instrumental in returning SoftBank to overall profitability, helping to mask persistent valuation declines in other parts of its massive tech portfolio.
Q3 FY26 Financial Snapshot
SoftBank’s return to the black follows a challenging period of losses, signaling that Masayoshi Son’s “AI-first” strategy is beginning to yield measurable financial results.
| Metric | Q3 FY26 (Ending Dec 31, 2025) | Q3 FY25 (YoY) |
| Net Profit (Group) | $1.6 Billion (¥248.6B) | ($2.4 Billion) Loss |
| Vision Fund Profit | $4.8 Billion (¥735.5B) | ($2.0 Billion) Loss |
| Specific OpenAI Gain | $2.4 Billion | — |
The OpenAI Factor: From Bet to Anchor
SoftBank has transformed into a major proxy for OpenAI’s private market success. Over the past year, the group has reportedly deployed over $40 billion into the ChatGPT creator.
1. Valuation Surge
The $2.4 billion gain reflects a recent jump in OpenAI’s private valuation. As OpenAI’s revenue projections for 2026 tripled following the launch of “Agentic” enterprise tools, the fair value of SoftBank’s stake was marked up significantly.+1
2. Offsetting Portfolio Losses
The OpenAI win was critical because it “papered over” continued struggles in the broader Vision Fund ecosystem:
- E-commerce & Ride-Hailing: Holdings in companies like Coupang and Didi faced valuation pressure during the quarter.
- ByteDance: The Vision Fund saw a decline in the carrying value of its stake in TikTok-owner ByteDance due to ongoing regulatory and geopolitical headwinds.
Strategic Shift: The “All-In” AI Move
To fund these massive AI bets, Masayoshi Son has been liquidating legacy holdings and leveraging his crown jewel, Arm Holdings:
- Asset Sales: Between June and December 2025, SoftBank sold its entire $5.8 billion stake in Nvidia and a $12.7 billion portion of its T-Mobile holdings.
- Leveraging Arm: SoftBank has been securing billions in loans backed by its shares in chip designer Arm to fulfill its funding commitments to OpenAI.
- Infrastructure Push: SoftBank and OpenAI recently co-invested $1 billion in data center developer SB Energy to build the power infrastructure required for next-gen LLMs.
Market Reaction
Investors responded positively to the “AI-driven turnaround,” sending SoftBank’s stock up 2.4% on the Tokyo Stock Exchange following the announcement. However, some analysts remain cautious, noting that SoftBank is now dangerously dependent on the continued ascent of a single private company.
“OpenAI has transformed from a speculative bet into a portfolio savior. For Son, it’s validation, but it also reveals a concentrated dependency.” — Financial Times Analysis, Feb 12, 2026.
