In a historic milestone for the global commodities market, silver prices in India shattered the psychological barrier of ₹4,00,000 per kg for the first time on Thursday, January 29, 2026.
The white metal’s rally has outperformed even gold’s record-breaking streak, with silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) surging by over ₹30,000 in a single day to hit a lifetime high of ₹4,10,000 per kg.
1. The “Perfect Storm” Driving the ₹4 Lakh Surge
The rapid ascent of silver—which began 2026 at approximately ₹2.38 lakh per kg—is the result of a rare alignment of geopolitical and structural factors:
- The Greenland Trade War: Markets are reeling from US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 10% to 25% tariffs on eight EU countries over strategic control of Greenland. Investors have fled to silver as a safe-haven asset amid fears of a global trade collapse.
- China’s Export Ban: Since January 1, 2026, China (a top global miner) has imposed strict licensing requirements on silver exports to protect its domestic green-tech industries, effectively starving the global market of physical supply.
- The “Strategic Asset” Shift: The US officially added silver to its Critical Minerals List for the first time in late 2025, triggering aggressive institutional and sovereign hoarding.
- Structural Deficit: 2026 marks the sixth consecutive year of a global silver supply deficit, with demand for solar panels, EV batteries, and AI data centers far outstripping mine production.
2. Market Snapshot: Silver Outperforming Gold
The Gold-to-Silver Ratio has plunged to below 50 for the first time since 2012, indicating that silver is currently the “high-beta” champion of the precious metals space.
| Asset | Price (Jan 29, 2026) | January 2026 Gains |
| MCX Silver (India) | ₹4,10,000 /kg | ~72% |
| Spot Silver (Intl) | $120.00 /oz | ~60% |
| MCX Gold (India) | ₹1,80,000 /10g | ~25% |
| Spot Gold (Intl) | $5,600.00 /oz | ~10% |
3. City-Wise Silver Rates in India
While the national benchmark is near ₹4.10 lakh, retail prices in South India are commanding an even higher premium due to localized demand.
- Chennai & Hyderabad: ₹4,25,000 per kg
- Mumbai & Delhi: ₹4,10,000 per kg
- Bengaluru & Pune: ₹4,10,000 per kg
- Kolkata: ₹4,10,000 per kg
4. The Road to ₹5,00,000?
Despite the “parabolic” nature of the rally, analyst sentiment remains divided on whether a correction is imminent:
- The Bull Case: With silver futures in deep backwardation (where current prices are much higher than future ones), there is an urgent scramble for physical metal. Some analysts, including those from Motilal Oswal, suggest a target of ₹4.5 lakh to ₹5 lakh if the Greenland dispute escalates.
- The Cautionary Case: Analysts at ICICI Direct warn of “mean reversion risk,” suggesting that such a steep 70% monthly gain is unsustainable and that investors should avoid “lump-sum” entry at these record levels.
Conclusion: A Structural Repricing
The breach of ₹4 lakh per kg is no longer just a “price spike”—it is a structural repricing of silver as an industrial necessity for the 2020s. As inventories at COMEX and LBMA hit multi-year lows, the “white metal” has finally stepped out of gold’s shadow to become the primary hedge against both inflation and geopolitical fragmentation.
