In January 2026, India’s merchandise imports from Russia plunged by roughly 40.5 %, dropping to $2.86 billion compared with $4.81 billion in the same month last year — a significant contraction largely driven by a sharp reduction in Russian crude oil purchases by Indian refiners.
The steep decline in imports reflects a major shift in India’s energy sourcing strategy. Petroleum crude accounts for about 80 % of total goods imported from Russia, and industry sources estimate that actual crude oil imports from Russia were around $2.3 billion or possibly lower in January, according to preliminary trade data released on February 16.
Drivers Behind the Import Drop
Several factors have contributed to the downturn:
- Reduced Russian Crude Purchases: Indian refiners, including key market players, sharply curtailed purchases of Russian crude in January — with some reporting no expected Russian oil deliveries — amid evolving market conditions and geopolitical pressures.
- Geopolitical & Trade Dynamics: The decline comes against the backdrop of shifting trade ties and negotiations with Western partners, including the United States, which had earlier applied punitive tariffs on India over Russian crude imports.
- Diversification of Supply: Analysts say Indian refiners are increasingly examining alternative crude sources, such as Venezuelan and Middle Eastern barrels, to balance energy security, pricing, and geopolitical considerations.
Apart from oil, India’s imports from Russia also include goods such as coal, coke, fertilisers, iron, and precious stones, but the dramatic drop in crude purchases disproportionately affected total bilateral imports.
Broader Trade Implications
January’s fall in imports comes amid wider trade data showing India’s merchandise trade deficit widened due to other factors, such as increased gold imports and fluctuating export levels.
Economists and trade experts view the latest figures as part of an ongoing recalibration in India’s global trade and energy procurement strategies, balancing affordability with diplomatic and economic priorities.
