India’s export to China growth has soared in the first four months of fiscal 2025–26 (April–July), marking a robust 20 % year-on-year increase that signals a revival in trade momentum between the two Asian giants.
A Clear Rebound
According to government data, India’s goods exports to China surged to US $5.76 billion (around ₹50,112 crore) from US $4.80 billion in the same four-month period last year. Each month—April through July—recorded stronger shipments than the previous year, demonstrating consistent momentum
Month-Wise Breakdown
- April: Exports were around US $1.39 billion, up from US $1.25 billion a year ago.
- May: Exports rose to US $1.63 billion from US $1.32 billion.
- June: They hit US $1.38 billion, up 17 %.
- July: Exports reached US $1.35 billion versus US $1.06 billion in July 2024
Sectoral Drivers of Growth
Several key sectors accounted for this surge:
- Petroleum products nearly doubled, with exports at US $883 million.
- Electronic goods soared with 202.7 % growth, totaling US $521 million.
- Agricultural exports saw staggering increases:
- Oil meals up 2,656 %
- Rice up 1,383 %
- Oil seeds up 1,791 %
- Other notable contributors included chemicals, spices, gems & jewellery, tea, and marine products
Policy Momentum & Trade Ties
This rebound follows efforts to bolster bilateral trade. During Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s August 2025 visit to New Delhi, both India and China agreed to re-open key border trade points (Lipulekh Pass, Shipki La Pass, Nathu La Pass) and implement measures to streamline trade and investment flows. These steps, combined with growing demand in China, have supported India’s renewed export competitiveness.
Addressing the Trade Deficit
India ran a substantial trade deficit with China in FY 25—approximately US $99.2 billion. The current export surge is seen as a step toward narrowing that gap, offering strategic relief amid global trade uncertainties.
Looking Ahead
If this export trend continues, India could post a positive annual growth in exports to China for fiscal year 2025–26, reversing last year’s contraction of 14.5 % (from US $16.67 billion in FY 24 to US $14.25 billion in FY 25) Hindustan Times
Background Context
In FY 25, India faced a sharp decline in merchandise exports to China, with 11 out of 12 months showing contraction—only May bucked the trend. The current rebound marks a meaningful shift, reflecting both improved global trade conditions and strengthened bilateral engagement.
