According to data released by the Commerce Ministry in December 2025, India’s trade relationship with China is seeing a structural shift. Monthly exports to China peaked in November 2025, reaching $2.20 billion—a staggering 90.12% increase compared to November 2024.
Key Drivers of the Export Growth
The surge was supported by a diversified range of sectors, indicating that the growth is not narrowly concentrated.
- Electronics: This sector saw massive gains, particularly in populated printed circuit boards, which jumped from $23.9 million to $922.4 million.7 Other drivers included telecom instruments and flat-panel display modules.
- Petrochemicals: Naphtha, used as a feedstock for plastics, was a primary contributor to the November spike.
- Agriculture and Marine: Significant shipments included black tiger shrimp, Vannamei shrimp, dried chilies, and oil-cake residues.
- Ores and Base Metals: Iron ore and minerals processed for export, alongside aluminium and refined copper billets, contributed to the rising totals.
India-China Trade Comparison (Apr–Nov)
| Metric | 2024–25 (Apr–Nov) | 2025–26 (Apr–Nov) | Growth (%) |
| Merchandise Exports | $9.20 Billion | $12.22 Billion | +32.83% |
| Merchandise Imports | (Growth Trend) | (Est. Record High) | +12.63% |
| Trade Deficit | $57.65 Billion (Apr-Oct) | $64 Billion (Apr-Oct) | Widening |
The Shadow of the Trade Deficit
Despite the strong export performance, India’s trade deficit with China remains a critical concern for policymakers.12
- Projected Record: Experts at the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) predict the trade deficit for the full 2025 calendar year will hit a record $106 billion.
- Import Reliance: India remains heavily dependent on China for high-value industrial inputs, including $38 billion in electronics (January–October 2025) such as solar cells, integrated circuits, and lithium-ion batteries.
- Strategic Response: In response to these trends, the Indian government has established an Inter-Ministerial Committee to monitor import surges and recommend corrective actions to protect domestic manufacturing.
Why the Surge Now?
Market analysts suggest that the push toward the Chinese market is partly a reaction to high tariffs in the United States, which have made it increasingly difficult for Indian exporters to ship goods competitively to American ports. This has led many Indian industries to aggressively explore and diversify into other large markets like China and Spain.
