Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have plunged to a six-month low, with supply volumes dropping 20% since the beginning of March. According to Bloomberg analysis of Kpler ship-tracking data, the 10-day moving average for LNG shipments has fallen to 1.1 million tons, the lowest level recorded since September 2025.
The sharp decline is a direct result of the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, which has crippled production in Qatar and effectively throttled the world’s most critical energy chokepoint.
1. The Qatar Shutdown: A “Multi-Year” Blow
The primary driver of the export collapse is the full halt of operations at Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City—the world’s largest LNG export hub.
- Direct Strikes: On the evening of March 18, an Iranian missile strike broke through defenses and hit the Ras Laffan complex. Fires caused extensive damage, forcing QatarEnergy to declare Force Majeure on all export contracts.
- Long-Term Damage: While most of the facility is being assessed, officials confirmed that two of the plant’s 14 production trains sustained damage that could take 3–5 years to repair.
- Global Impact: Qatar accounts for roughly 20% of global LNG output. The loss of this “megahub” has erased all recent supply gains from new projects in the U.S. and Canada.
2. The Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Even the gas that is still being produced in the region cannot reach the market. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global LNG supply, is currently under a near-total blockade.
- Tanker Collapse: Shipping traffic through the Strait has plummeted by more than 90%. Before the conflict (Feb 28), the Strait averaged 120 transits per day; as of this morning, that number has dropped to just 6.9.
- Insurance Withdrawal: Most global insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf, leaving tankers unable to obtain the necessary insurance to sail even if they were willing to risk the passage.
- Inventory Squeeze: With Gulf producers (Qatar and the UAE) effectively cut off, gas inventories in Asia and Europe are shrinking rapidly just as late-season cold snaps hit the Northern Hemisphere.
3. Market & Economic Aftershocks
The 20% supply drop has triggered a “systemic collapse” of traditional energy pricing, with ripples felt across every major economy.
| Market Region | Impact (March 23–24) | Primary Concern |
| Europe (TTF) | Prices surged to €74/MWh. | Racing to replenish low stockpiles without Qatari gas. |
| Asia (Spot LNG) | Prices up 80% since conflict start. | Japan and South Korea facing severe supply competition. |
| India | Urea production cut by 50%. | Fertilizer plants facing sudden gas allocation cuts. |
| Global Inflation | Projected +0.8% to CPI. | Energy-driven price hikes hitting manufacturing and households. |
4. The “Second Energy Crisis” for Europe
For Europe, this represents a “double-whammy” crisis. After spending years pivoting away from Russian pipeline gas toward global LNG, the continent is now seeing its primary alternative (Qatar) taken offline.
- US/Canada Growth: While North American production is at record highs, it lacks the immediate spare capacity to compensate for the 20 million tons recently removed from the global market.
- Diversification: EU leaders are now fast-tracking investments in nuclear energy and floating storage units (FSRUs) to prevent a total industrial shutdown by winter 2026.
“This is the greatest global energy security challenge in history,” noted the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA). “We are seeing a physical and logistical breakdown of the world’s energy supply chain in real-time.”
