General Administration of Customs reported that China’s integrated circuit (IC) exports surged by 72.6% in value during January and February 2026 compared to the previous year.
The total export value for semiconductors reached $43.3 billion (approximately ₹304.7 billion yuan), marking the fastest growth rate in over a decade.
Drivers of the 73% Surge
The spike is not just a result of increased volume, but a significant shift in market value and geopolitical strategy.
- The Global AI Boom: Massive global investment in AI data centers and digital infrastructure has created “red-hot” demand for chips.
- Price Hikes & Memory Shortage: While export value jumped ~73%, export volume rose by a more modest 13.7% (to 52.5 billion units). This discrepancy is driven by a global memory chip shortage; prices for consumer memory like DDR4 and DDR5 surged up to 4x late last year as manufacturers redirected capacity toward high-value AI chips (HBM3/HBM4).
- Mature-Node Dominance: China has successfully reached a 45% localization rate for mature-node chips (28nm and above), which are essential for the automotive and industrial sectors. These “legacy” chips now account for a massive portion of its export strength.
- Trade Diversification: To blunt the impact of U.S. tariffs, Chinese manufacturers have aggressively redirected shipments to ASEAN (up 29.4%), the EU (up 27.8%), and South Korea (up 27%).
Key Data Points: Jan–Feb 2026
| Metric | Value / Status | Comparison (YoY) |
| IC Export Value | $43.3 Billion | +72.6% |
| IC Export Volume | 52.5 Billion Units | +13.7% |
| IC Import Value | $78.2 Billion | +39.8% |
| Overall Export Growth | 21.8% | Semiconductors far outperformed the average. |
| Trade Surplus | $213.6 Billion | A record for the two-month period. |
Strategic Context: The 15th Five-Year Plan
The data arrived just as Beijing concluded its “Two Sessions” (NPC) on March 12, 2026.
- The Blueprint: The newly adopted 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) mentions “AI” 52 times, signaling a shift toward an “intelligent economy.”
- Self-Reliance: President Xi Jinping has issued a “whole-nation” mandate to break technological “throat-holding” bottlenecks caused by U.S. export restrictions.
- The Target: China aims to reach a 55% localization rate for mature-node chips by the end of 2026.
The “Trump” Factor
Despite a renewed “tariff war” in 2025, Chinese industrial momentum has remained resilient. Markets are now closely watching the upcoming Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing (scheduled for late March 2026) for a potential trade truce extension, which could further stabilize export outlooks.
