China’s rare-earth exports jumped 32% in June compared to May, reaching 7,742.2 metric tons, the highest monthly total in 16 years. This follows a 23% month-on-month rise in May (to 5,864.6 t) despite April’s export curbs, suggesting a gradual easing of restrictions after recent trade deals
🔍 5 Key Drivers
1️⃣ Easing of export restrictions
June’s surge signals that export curbs imposed in April—aimed at selected rare-earths and magnets—are being relaxed, possibly due to diplomatic deals between China and the U.S./EU
2️⃣ Global demand recovery
Demand from high-tech and EV manufacturers is rebounding. June’s export volume was 60% higher than June 2024 (4,829 t), reflecting growing needs in clean tech and defense sectors
3️⃣ Supply chain normalization
After April’s restrictions forced Europe’s auto firms to pause production, renewed shipments indicate a resumption—particularly for non‑curbed rare-earth categories
4️⃣ Strategic frontloading
Exporters appear to be accelerating shipments ahead of potential future trade disruptions, echoing broader trade front‑loading seen across Chinese exports .
5️⃣ Continued Chinese dominance
China remains the global leader—producing around 60% of rare earths and controlling nearly 90% of refining capacity—giving it leverage to adjust export volumes dynamically cnbc
🌍 Broader Impacts
- Trade war leverage: China’s rare‑earth export controls have been used as a negotiation tool, potentially tied to broader tech export discussions .
- Industry resilience: Global manufacturers reliant on rare earths may breathe easier, though some sectors—like heavy rare-earth magnets—still face uncertainty.
- Diversification pressure: Persistent unpredictability is driving investment in alternative sources and recycling in the U.S., EU, and India .
✅ Bottom Line
June’s 16‑year high in rare-earth exports underscores China’s ability to modulate global supply under the guise of policy shifts and trade diplomacy. While this offers short-term relief to industries reliant on these critical minerals, the situation highlights the ongoing risks of geopolitical dependency—and the urgent need for diversified, stable supply chains.
