In February 2026, China’s imports of Russian oil surged as the country officially replaced India as Moscow’s top seaborne crude customer. While month-on-month growth from January was approximately 21%, the year-on-year increase for early 2026 has been reported as high as 46% to 50%.
This shift is the result of a “bifurcation” in Asian energy strategies, where India has pulled back due to U.S. trade pressure, leaving China as the primary outlet for displaced Russian barrels.
The “China Surge” by the Numbers
Data from February 2026 shows Russia’s pivot to China reaching its highest-ever intensity:
- Daily Volume: Russian crude shipments to China are estimated at 2.07 to 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd) for February, up from ~1.7 million bpd in January.
- Market Share: Russian oil now accounts for approximately 18% of China’s total seaborne crude imports, a jump from 11% in late 2025.
- Comparison to India: While China’s imports rose to record highs, India’s Russian crude intake fell to roughly 1.16 million bpd in February, down from peaks of nearly 2 million bpd in 2023.
Why the Sudden Increase?
Three major factors converged in February 2026 to drive these record volumes into Chinese ports:
1. The “India Vacancy”
India significantly reduced its purchases of Russian oil in early 2026 to secure a $100 billion trade deal with the Trump administration. This left a massive surplus of Russian crude—particularly the Urals grade—with no destination. China’s “teapot” (independent) refiners snapped up these “homeless” cargoes at steep discounts.
2. The Russian-Iranian “Price War”
With limited buyers, Russia and Iran are now in a direct competition for the Chinese market.
- Urals Discount: Russia’s flagship Urals grade is currently trading at a discount of $11–$12 per barrel below benchmark Brent.
- Reliability: Traders report that Chinese refiners prefer Russian oil over Iranian supplies right now due to fears that potential U.S. strikes on Iran could disrupt loadings in the Persian Gulf.
3. Shift in Refiner Behavior
- Teapots take the lead: Nearly 90% of the Russian oil entering China this month was delivered to the Shandong province, the hub for private “teapot” refineries.
- State-Owned Retreat: Major state-owned firms like Sinopec have largely shunned sanctioned oil to avoid secondary U.S. sanctions, leaving the high-risk, high-reward trade entirely to private players.
Strategic Impact: The “Eurasian Energy Bloc”
Analysts suggest this February surge represents a permanent structural change in global energy flows:
- Infrastructure Adaptability: Russia has optimized its Far East terminals (like Kozmino) to handle increased volumes, effectively “locking in” Beijing as its primary long-term customer.
- Sanctions Paradox: While Western sanctions were intended to reduce Russian revenue, they have primarily redirected the flow of oil, granting China significant leverage to negotiate even deeper discounts in the future.
