China’s economy expanded 5.2% year‑on‑year in the April–June quarter of 2025, slightly above market expectations of 5.1%. While growth slowed from 5.4% in Q1, it still demonstrates resilience driven by industrial strength and exports reuters
On a quarter‑on‑quarter basis, GDP rose 1.1%, beating the forecast of 0.9%, supported by manufacturing output and global trade demand.
📊 4 Key Insights Behind China’s GDP Growth
1️⃣ Export sector leads recovery
Chinese exports grew around 5.8–5.9% in H1 2025, thanks to new trade partnerships with ASEAN, Africa, and the EU. A temporary easing of U.S. tariffs also helped
2️⃣ Strong industrial production
In June, industrial production rose by 6.8%, its fastest pace in months. This helped offset weakness in domestic consumption and real estate
3️⃣ Domestic demand still lags
Retail sales grew only 4.8% in June, signaling cautious consumer spending. Fixed‑asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in H1, weighed down by the struggling property sector
4️⃣ Outlook: slower growth ahead
Economists forecast China’s GDP growth could slow to 4.6% in 2025 and further to 4.2% in 2026 without targeted policy support. This points to potential measures at the July Politburo meeting to boost demand ().
🔭 What to Watch
- Stimulus policy: Possible infrastructure spending, tax relief, or rate cuts to support domestic demand.
- US–China trade talks: The August tariff deadline could influence export momentum.
- Consumer sentiment: Strengthening household confidence remains critical for sustainable growth.
✅ Bottom Line
China’s GDP grows 5.2% in Q2 2025, showing resilience from exports and manufacturing. Yet, domestic demand remains soft, and the next phase of growth will likely depend on careful policy support and global trade stability.
