Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana, has warned that Bitcoin is facing a serious risk from quantum computing. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, he said there’s about a 50/50 chance of a quantum computing breakthrough within the next five years.
Yakovenko urged the Bitcoin community to “migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme” to avoid being caught unprepared. He emphasized that with how fast AI, hardware, and other technologies are converging, what once seemed far off may happen sooner than many expect.
Why This Issue Matters
- Bitcoin and many existing blockchains use ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) for their signature scheme. This algorithm, while very secure today, is theoretically vulnerable to future quantum attacks (especially via algorithms like Shor’s).
- Post-quantum cryptography is an emerging field, with efforts underway (in research labs, standards bodies) to define signature schemes and protocols that remain secure even under quantum computing capabilities.
Challenges for Bitcoin
Transitioning Bitcoin to quantum-resistant cryptography is not simple. Some of the challenges include:
- Hard fork risk: Changing the signature scheme or introducing a quantum-resistant mechanism likely requires a hard fork, which needs broad consensus from the network, developers, miners, wallet providers etc.
- Wallet migration & backward compatibility: Existing wallets and keys built on ECDSA would need migration or special handling. Key exposure and address reuse are issues. Decrypt
- Time & infrastructure: Changing cryptography, validating new signature schemes, updating nodes, and ensuring interoperability are large technical and logistical tasks. Yakovenko’s warning underscores that these tasks should begin now.
Possible Paths Forward
Here are some approaches the Bitcoin ecosystem might consider, if it heeds the warning:
- Begin research and experimentation with quantum-resistant signature schemes (e.g. hash-based signatures, lattice-based signatures, etc.).
- Introduce optional quantum-resistant wallets or “vaults” that users can move funds into as a safeguard.
- Gradually adopt soft upgrades or protocol designs that allow dual signature support, so that transactions/signatures can transition without breaking existing compatibility.
- Monitor governments and standards bodies that are pushing to deprecate classical cryptographic algorithms (ECDSA, RSA) toward 2030-2035, to ensure Bitcoin remains compliant with regulatory or sovereignty expectations.
Implications if Action Isn’t Taken
If Bitcoin does not act soon:
- A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could (in theory) compromise private keys derived from public blockchain data, potentially allowing attackers to forge signatures or steal assets.
- The credibility and trust in Bitcoin’s security model might suffer, especially among institutions, governments, and large holders who are more sensitive to future risk.
- Regulatory or institutional adoption may slow if Bitcoin is seen as being behind in cryptographic resilience.
