Apple overtake Samsung — that’s what analysts expect in 2025, as Apple is on track to reclaim the crown of world’s top smartphone maker this year.
According to a recent forecast by Counterpoint Research, the launch of the new iPhone 17 series has triggered strong demand and a wave of upgrades across major markets
As a result, Apple’s worldwide shipments in 2025 are estimated to grow around 10 % — bringing iPhone shipments to roughly 243 million units. That gives Apple a projected global smartphone-market share of 19.4 %.
Meanwhile, Samsung is expected to grow shipments by only 4.6 % this year, giving it an estimated share of 18.7 % — slightly behind Apple
If these figures hold, it would mark the first time since 2011 that Apple leads globally — ending Samsung’s 14-year run at No.1.
What’s Fueling Apple’s Surge
- Strong iPhone 17 Demand: The newly launched iPhone 17 series has seen robust uptake in major markets such as the U.S. and China, helping drive sales growth.
- Global Upgrade Cycle: Many users who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 purchasing boom are now ready to upgrade — contributing to increased demand for premium phones like iPhones.
- Global Market Growth: The overall smartphone market is expected to grow around 3.3 % in 2025, and Apple seems best positioned to capture a large share of that growth. The Economic Times
- Strategic Product Roadmap: Beyond iPhone 17, Apple is reportedly planning to launch more models — including a budget-friendly “17e” and possibly a foldable iPhone in coming years — which may help sustain momentum.
Implications: What This Means for the Smartphone Industry & Consumers
- Shift in Market Leadership: Apple regaining No. 1 would be a big symbolic win — underscoring how the premium smartphone segment remains strong even as many companies focus on affordable handsets.
- Pressure on Rivals: For Samsung and other smartphone makers (especially in mid-to-budget segments), Apple’s lead could mean steeper competition, especially in markets where premium upgrades are rising.
- Impact on Pricing & Features: To compete, brands may push more innovations or aggressive pricing, especially in emerging markets — which could benefit consumers.
- Changing Industry Dynamics: A leadership change could influence where companies invest — more premium models, more R&D on high-end features (AI, cameras, foldables) rather than just competing on cost.
What to Watch Next
- Keep an eye on Q4 2025 sales — holiday-season demand could confirm whether Apple’s lead is temporary or durable.
- Watch Samsung’s response — price cuts, new Galaxy launches or upgrades could challenge Apple’s lead.
- Observe how mid-range and budget smartphone makers react — rising premium demand from Apple could push them to reposition.
- Follow product roadmap: upcoming releases (like cheaper iPhone 17e or a foldable iPhone) may cement Apple’s dominance.
