As of Friday, March 13, 2026, air cargo rates have surged by as much as 70% on key trade routes following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The spike is the result of a “supply chain pincer”: sea routes are blocked, forcing high-value goods onto planes, while air capacity itself has shrivelled due to airspace closures across the Middle East.
The 70% Surge: By the Numbers
Data from freight booking platforms like Freightos and Xeneta shows that the most dramatic increases are occurring on lanes connecting Asia and Europe.
| Route | Pre-War Rate (Feb) | Current Rate (Mar 13) | % Increase |
| South Asia to Europe | $2.57 / kg | $4.37 / kg | +70% |
| South Asia to North America | $4.06 / kg | $6.41 / kg | +58% |
| Europe to Middle East | $1.80 / kg | $2.79 / kg | +55% |
| Global Capacity | — | -18% | (Total drop) |
Why Are Costs Exploding?
- The “Sea-to-Air” Migration: With over 150 container ships stranded near the Strait of Hormuz and major carriers like Maersk and MSC suspending transits, shippers of urgent goods (medicines, electronics, and perishables) are panic-switching to air. Air freight is typically 5x to 10x more expensive than sea, but is currently the only viable option for time-sensitive cargo.
- Hubs “Going Dark”: The Middle East is the world’s “transit lounge.” Major hubs like Dubai (DXB) and Doha (DOH) are operating at severely limited capacity. Emirates SkyCargo and Qatar Airways Cargo have suspended or significantly curtailed operations, removing roughly 15% of global capacity overnight.
- Jet Fuel Price Shock: Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices have doubled, jumping from ~$90 to nearly $180–$200 per barrel. This has triggered a wave of “Emergency Conflict Surcharges.”
- The “Payload” Penalty: To avoid conflict zones, airlines like Cathay Pacific and Air India are flying longer, non-stop routes. To carry the extra fuel required for these detours, they must reduce the amount of cargo (payload) they carry, effectively making every kilogram of space more expensive.
Immediate Impact on Consumers
- The “LPG” Ripple: The air cargo surge is compounding the domestic LPG crisis in India. Because industrial components for refineries and backup energy equipment are now being flown in at 70% higher costs, many businesses are passing these “logistics surcharges” directly to consumers.
- Medicine Shortages: India is a global hub for generic drugs. Shifting these from sea to air is adding an estimated ₹150 to ₹300 to the cost of standard export batches, which analysts warn will hit global pharmacy shelves by April.
- Tech Pricing: Shipments of semiconductors and servers from Taiwan and South Korea are facing massive backlogs, with “war risk levies” being added to every hardware invoice.
Global Airline Response
- Air India: Introduced a phased fuel surcharge on March 12, adding $10 to $200 per ticket/shipment depending on the route.
- Lufthansa & Maersk Air: Both have applied “War Risk Surcharges” and “Emergency Operational Surcharges” to all cargo transiting near the MESA (Middle East & South Asia) region.
- FlySafair (South Africa): Citing a 70% spike in fuel costs at coastal airports, the airline implemented its first-ever temporary fuel surcharge today.
