The wait for the “biggest trade deal” in the European Union’s history is almost over. On January 14, 2026, reports confirmed that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will travel to New Delhi to formalize the India-EU Free Trade Agreement on January 27.

The signing will take place just one day after the EU leaders grace India’s Republic Day parade as the Chief Guests, signaling a new era of strategic and economic alignment.

The Big “Agriculture” Carve-Out

The most significant detail of the final agreement is the total exclusion of the agriculture sector. This strategic “carve-out” was essential to reaching a consensus, as both regions sought to protect their domestic farming communities.

• India’s Stance: With 44% of its workforce employed in agriculture, India remained firm on protecting sensitive sectors like dairy and sugar from European competition.
• EU’s Perspective: European leaders acknowledged that including agriculture would have been a “deal-breaker,” opting instead to focus on industrial and service-based gains.
• The “Wine & Spirits” Exception: Despite the general exclusion, the two sides have reached a specific understanding to lower India’s steep 150% tariffs on European wines and spirits, providing a major win for French and Italian exporters.

Impacted Sectors: Who Wins?

By removing or reducing tariffs on thousands of product lines, the FTA is expected to significantly boost bilateral trade, which already stood at $136.53 billion in 2024-25.

Geopolitics: Diversifying Beyond China

Beyond the economic numbers, the timing of the deal is deeply political. As the Trump administration ramps up global tariffs in early 2026, both India and the EU are eager to reduce their economic dependence on China and create a stable, “rules-based” trading corridor.

“This deal is a massive signal for EU trade policy. It has been clear from the very beginning that farming would not be part of the final package, but the access to a market of 1.4 billion people is a historic achievement.” — Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President.

Conclusion

The signing of the India-EU FTA on January 27 marks the end of a 19-year journey that began in 2007. While the exclusion of agriculture and certain “geographical indications” means this is not a total market merger, it is undoubtedly the most significant step toward integrating India into the Western economic fold since the 1991 reforms.

In a decisive move to address the depleting squadron strength of the Indian Air Force (IAF), the Ministry of Defence is scheduled to discuss a massive ₹3.25 lakh crore proposal this week. The deal for 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) is expected to follow a Government-to-Government (G2G) route with France, ensuring that the majority of these advanced jets are built on Indian soil.

The “Make in India” Blueprint

The current proposal marks a significant shift from previous acquisitions. Unlike the 2016 emergency purchase of 36 fly-away jets, the new 114-jet order is centered on domestic production and technology transfer.

• Domestic Production: Out of the 114 jets, 96 are planned to be manufactured in India (approx. 80%), while the remaining 18 will arrive in “fly-away” condition from France.
• The Tata-Dassault Partnership: Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) is the frontrunner to lead domestic manufacturing.⁶ A dedicated facility in Hyderabad is already being prepared to produce key structural sections, including the fuselage, from 2028 onwards.
• Local Content: While initial indigenous content is pegged at 30%, officials expect this to rise to 60% as the production line matures and Indian-made weapons are integrated.

Why the Rafale? Performance in “Operation Sindoor”

The IAF’s preference for the Rafale has been bolstered by its reported performance in recent regional skirmishes.

1. Electronic Warfare Mastery: The Rafale’s SPECTRA suite reportedly proved highly effective during Operation Sindoor (May 2025), where it successfully countered advanced Chinese-made PL-15 air-to-air missiles.
2. High Serviceability: With a serviceability rate of nearly 90%, the Rafale significantly outperforms other global competitors, including the F-35 and Su-57, in terms of operational readiness.
3. Future-Proofing: The new order will include the latest F4 standard and eventually the F5 variant, which features advanced AI-driven avionics and compatibility with hypersonic weapons.

Economic and Strategic Impact

If cleared by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), this will become the largest defense deal in India’s history.

Conclusion

The decision to pursue a direct G2G deal with France allows the IAF to skip the protracted multi-vendor tender process that has delayed the MRFA program for years. By insisting on 80% domestic manufacturing, India is not just buying a fighter jet; it is building a high-tech aerospace ecosystem that could eventually serve as a regional export hub for Dassault Aviation.

In a significant update to a high-profile legal battle, whistleblower Carl Krawitt, a former contractor for both Infosys and Apple, has submitted an amended complaint with new evidence. The lawsuit, being heard in a California federal court, alleges that the two tech giants conspired to bypass expensive H-1B work visa requirements by misusing B-1 visitor visas.

The Core Allegations

The amended complaint, filed in early January 2026, claims that Infosys and Apple engaged in a cost-saving scheme at the expense of U.S. labor laws.

• Visa Evasion: The whistleblower alleges that Infosys placed workers on B-1 (Business Visitor) visas for roles that legally required H-1B (Specialty Occupation) status.
• Financial Motivation: By using B-1 visas, the lawsuit claims Infosys avoided paying significantly higher H-1B application fees, as well as Social Security and Medicare taxes.
• Apple’s Involvement: The complaint alleges that Apple “willingly participated” in the scheme to secure skilled labor at lower rates, prioritizing cost savings over hiring U.S. citizens or green card holders.

A History of Scrutiny

This 2026 case is not the first time Infosys has faced such allegations. The company has a history of high-stakes immigration settlements with U.S. authorities:

Why This Case Matters in 2026

The timing of this lawsuit is critical. With the U.S. administration intensifying oversight of H-1B dependency in late 2025 and early 2026, a judgment against a major IT services provider like Infosys could trigger industry-wide audits.

While a federal judge had previously dismissed Krawitt’s claims in late 2025, the court “left the door open” for the whistleblower to provide more information. The new evidence filed on January 12 is intended to prove that the B-1 visa holders were performing “skilled labor” (designing, testing, and coding) rather than the authorized “business meetings” or “consultations” permitted under the B-1 category.

Conclusion

Infosys has historically denied systemic visa fraud, often attributing past issues to “paperwork errors.” However, if this new evidence gains traction, it could lead to another multi-million dollar settlement or, worse, restricted access to the U.S. visa programs that serve as the lifeblood of the Indian IT offshoring model.

Ola Electric is pivoting from being just an EV manufacturer to becoming the backbone of India’s energy ecosystem. At the Prarambh 2026 event on January 14, the company announced it will allow startups and established businesses to directly purchase its proprietary 4680 Bharat Cells and 1.5kWh battery packs.

This move is designed to accelerate innovation in “Made in India” hardware by providing a reliable, high-density power source for sectors that have traditionally relied on imported cells.

One Cell, Infinite Applications

By opening the Bharat Cell platform, Ola is targeting industries that require high energy density in compact form factors. A company spokesperson confirmed that the cells are now available for:

• Drones & Aviation: High-performance power for the growing Indian UAV sector.
• Humanoids & Robotics: Providing the longevity needed for autonomous machines.
• Portable Medical Equipment: Reliable energy for life-saving devices in remote areas.
• Custom Mobility: Small-scale EV startups can now build their own vehicles using Ola’s proven battery architecture.

Specs and Scaling: The 4680 Advantage

The 4680 cell (46mm diameter, 80mm height) is the same “tabless” technology pioneered by Tesla, offering five times more energy than standard 2170 cells. Ola’s version is engineered specifically for the harsh, high-temperature climates of India.

The Launch of Ola Shakti BESS

Alongside the platform opening, Ola officially opened sales for Ola Shakti, India’s first fully indigenous residential Battery Energy Storage System (BESS).

• 3kW/5.2kWh Model: Priced at ₹1,49,999 (Deliveries from mid-February 2026).
• 6kW/9.1kWh Model: Priced at ₹2,49,999 (Deliveries from end of January 2026).
• Capabilities: The system can power heavy-load appliances like ACs and induction cookers with a backup of up to 1.5 hours on full load.

Conclusion: Powering the “Viksit Bharat” Vision

By opening its Gigafactory output to the wider market, Ola Electric is positioning itself as a central utility provider for the next decade of Indian engineering. For startups that previously struggled with the high cost and logistical hurdles of importing lithium-ion cells from China, the 4680 Bharat Cell platform offers a faster, more reliable path to commercialization.

The scale of the artificial intelligence revolution is no longer measured just in parameters or tokens, but in hundreds of billions of dollars. According to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs as of January 15, 2026, the “Big Four” hyperscalers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—are on track to spend an aggregate $440 billion this year on AI-related capital expenditures (capex).

Breaking Down the $440 Billion Investment

While each company has its own unique strategy, the shared goal is clear: securing the physical hardware and energy required to ensure they aren’t left behind in the AI era.

The Pivot to “Inference Factories”

In 2025, the focus was primarily on “training” massive models like GPT-5 and Llama 4. In 2026, the strategy is shifting toward inference—the actual use of AI by billions of people in real-time. This requires a different kind of infrastructure:

• Edge Computing: Building “micro-data centers” closer to end-users to reduce latency for AI voice assistants and real-time video translation.
• Specialized Silicon: To reduce their dependence on NVIDIA, all four companies are significantly increasing production of their own custom AI chips (like Amazon’s Trainium 3 and Google’s v6 TPUs).
• The Energy War: The primary bottleneck is no longer chips, but electricity. Microsoft and Google have emerged as the largest “energy recruiters” in the world, hiring hundreds of experts to secure nuclear and renewable power for their 10-gigawatt “Stargate” style projects.

Market Risks: The ROI Question

Despite the staggering investment, Wall Street is growing increasingly selective. While Microsoft and Amazon are already reporting tens of billions in annual AI revenue through their cloud divisions, investors are putting pressure on Meta and Google to show how this $440 billion spend will translate into higher margins.

“We are moving from the ‘building phase’ to the ‘execution phase.’ The companies that can turn this massive capex into profitable, real-world utility will be the winners of 2026.” — Ryan Hammond, Goldman Sachs Research.

Conclusion

The $440 billion spend by Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft is the largest single-sector investment in human history, surpassing even the peak of the dot-com boom or the post-war industrial expansion. By the end of 2026, the physical landscape of the United States and Europe will be permanently altered by massive AI data centers—each a multi-billion dollar bet on a future defined by machine intelligence.

The battle for semiconductor supremacy has entered a new phase. On January 14, 2026, the Trump administration issued a national security proclamation imposing a 25% ad valorem tariff on a narrow category of advanced computing chips. The move is designed to force a “reshoring” of the semiconductor industry, reducing U.S. reliance on foreign manufacturing hubs like Taiwan and South Korea.

Targeted Products and National Security

The new tariffs are a direct result of a nine-month investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The probe concluded that the U.S. currently manufactures only about 10% of the chips it requires, creating a “significant economic and national security risk.”

Key Chips Affected:

• NVIDIA H200: The industry-leading AI processor used for large-scale model training.
• AMD MI325X: AMD’s flagship AI accelerator designed to compete with NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture.

The “Case-by-Case” China Deal

The tariff is part of a complex “revenue-sharing” strategy regarding China. Just one day before the tariff was announced, the Commerce Department relaxed licensing rules to allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to approved Chinese customers. However, the 25% tariff acts as a “toll” for these sales, ensuring the U.S. government takes a significant cut of every advanced chip transaction involving Chinese entities.

Major Exemptions: Who is Spared?

To avoid crippling the domestic AI boom, the White House has included several critical exemptions. The 25% levy will not apply to:

• U.S. Data Centers: Chips imported specifically to build out domestic AI infrastructure.
• Startups & Research: Small-scale AI firms and academic institutions.
• Consumer & Industrial: Non-AI chips for cars, appliances, and consumer electronics.
• Public Sector: Chips used by the U.S. government and military.

Industry Reaction: A Cautious Welcome?

Surprisingly, NVIDIA has expressed a level of support for the move. An NVIDIA spokesperson stated that the company welcomes the ability to compete for “vetted and approved commercial business” in China, even with the added tariff costs.

However, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn that while the current tariff is narrow, the “signal” is the real risk. The White House fact sheet explicitly mentions that broader tariffs on all semiconductors and their derivative products may be imposed in the “near future” to further incentivize domestic manufacturing.

Conclusion

The 25% tariff is a calculated gamble. By taxing the world’s most advanced chips, the Trump administration is betting that the added cost will eventually make U.S.-based manufacturing (through facilities like those built by TSMC in Arizona and Intel in Ohio) more competitive. For now, it represents a new “AI tax” that ensures the U.S. Treasury benefits from the global hunger for computing power.