In a significant escalation of the ongoing North American trade war, President Donald Trump threatened Canada with a 50% tariff on all aircraft imports on Thursday, January 29, 2026.
The move is framed as a direct retaliation for Canada’s refusal to certify business jets produced by the Savannah, Georgia-based Gulfstream Aerospace. The President also announced he is “decertifying” Canadian-made aircraft, specifically targeting Bombardier’s Global Express series, effectively barring them from U.S. operations until the dispute is resolved.
1. The Gulfstream Certification Dispute
The core of the conflict lies in a regulatory standoff between the two nations’ aviation authorities.
- The Accusation: President Trump accused Canada of “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly” refusing to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 jets.
- The Claim: The Trump administration argues that Canada is using its certification process as a protectionist barrier to prohibit the sale of these high-tech American aircraft while enjoying unfettered access to the U.S. market for its own planes.
- The Ultimatum: The 50% tariff is set to trigger unless Canada immediately certifies the Gulfstream fleet, which the President described as “some of the greatest, most technologically advanced airplanes ever made.”
2. Impact on Bombardier and U.S. Aviation
The threat specifically names Bombardier, Canada’s largest aircraft manufacturer, and its flagship Global Express line.
- Decertification: In an unprecedented move, the President stated he is “hereby decertifying” these jets. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, there are roughly 150 Global Express aircraft currently registered and operating in the U.S.
- U.S. Operations: Bombardier employs over 3,000 people in the United States across nine facilities. The company warned that these measures could have a “significant impact on air traffic and the flying public.”
- Regional Carriers: U.S. airlines like American and Delta rely heavily on Canadian-made regional jets. Decertification could disrupt domestic flight schedules and raise safety-precedent concerns if certificates are revoked for economic rather than safety reasons.
3. Broader Context: The “Carney-Trump” Feud
This latest salvo comes amid deteriorating relations between President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
- The Davos Speech: Last week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Prime Minister Carney condemned “economic coercion” by great powers—a remark widely seen as a jab at Trump’s trade policies.
- The China Trade Deal: Over the weekend, Trump also threatened a 100% tariff on all Canadian goods if Ottawa proceeds with a planned trade agreement with China, referring to Carney as “Governor” and warning that China would “devour” the Canadian economy.
- USMCA Review: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Carney that these diplomatic frictions could severely disadvantage Canada during the formal review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
4. Market and Economic Reaction
Aviation experts have warned that mixing safety certification with political grievances sets a dangerous global precedent.
| Potential Outcome | Impact Level | Industry Sentiment |
| Supply Chain Disruption | High | Fears of retaliation affecting U.S. aerospace exports to Canada. |
| Airfare Increases | Medium | Tariffs on regional jets could be passed to passengers by U.S. airlines. |
| Global Precedent | Critical | Risk of other nations “decertifying” U.S. planes for trade leverage. |
Conclusion: A High-Stakes Regulatory Gambit
By targeting the high-margin business jet sector, President Trump is attempting to use the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) certification power as a blunt instrument for trade negotiation. While the 50% tariff hasn’t been implemented yet, the “decertification” threat has sent the aerospace sector into a state of emergency. If Canada does not blink, this could lead to the most severe disruption in North American civil aviation since the grounding of the Max fleet.
