On August 4–5, 2025, Russia declared that it is no longer bound by its self-imposed restrictions under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, marking a definitive end to the agreement with the U.S. and NATO. The Kremlin cited mounting Western missile deployments and military exercises as direct threats that invalidate the conditions for the moratorium. This move dismantles one of the last barriers to unrestricted intermediate- and short-range missile deployment.
This termination further erodes nuclear arms control architecture, leaving the New START treaty as the only remaining U.S.–Russia limitation—set to expire in February 2026 amid suspended inspections and deep mistrust.
🔍 Why Russia Took This Step
1. Perceived Western Threats
Russia’s Foreign Ministry linked its withdrawal from INF restrictions to deployment of U.S. Typhon and Dark Eagle missile systems in Europe and Asia-Pacific, including Australia. Russia claims such actions nullify prior conditions for the treaty.
2. Breakdown of Arms Control Trust
Inspections under the remaining New START treaty were paused since the COVID‑19 pandemic and have not resumed. In 2023 Russia formally suspended participation, raising concerns about treaty compliance and future arms control.
3. Public Hardened Posture
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev framed the decision as a response to NATO’s perceived anti-Russian policy and vowed further measures. Kremlin officials reinforced the message of a new strategic posture.
🚀 Impacts of Russia Ending Nuclear Treaty with US
A. Triggered Arms Race Risk
With no INF constraints, ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with 500–5,500 km range may be redeployed on either side—raising fears of a new strategic buildup across Europe and Asia-Pacific.
B. Weakening of Verification Regimes
The suspension of inspections under New START means both sides lose critical verification mechanisms. U.S. retaliated by halting data exchanges, further eroding transparency.
C. Geopolitical Tensions Deepen
The move amplifies conflict dynamics over Ukraine and NATO expansion. It may provoke further military deployments and heighten alert levels across strategic theaters.
🧭 What’s Left: The Fate of New START
As of now, the New START treaty remains formally valid until February 2026, limiting both countries to 1,550 deployed warheads. However, with compliance infrastructure broken, experts doubt any meaningful negotiations for extension or replacement will occur.
Analysts warn that global arms control frameworks are collapsing, and without restoration of high‑level diplomatic trust, the world could face renewed strategic competition without rules.
✅ Key Takeaways
| Issue | Significance |
|---|---|
| INF Treaty Termination | Russia ends moratorium on intermediate-range missile deployment |
| Broader Context | NATO and U.S. deployments cited as justification |
| Remaining Treaty | New START still in effect but compliance mechanisms are halted |
| Global Impact | Increases risk of missile proliferation and nuclear escalation |
| Outlook | Arms control talks remain stalled; global strategic stability is under threat |
