Renowned robotics pioneer Rodney Brooks, co-founder of iRobot and former MIT professor, has issued a stark warning: “We are in a humanoid robot bubble.” In a recent interview on September 25, 2025, Brooks likened the frenzy around humanoid robots—fueled by massive funding for startups like Figure AI and Tesla’s Optimus—to the overhyped dotcom and AI booms of yesteryear. With venture capital pouring over $2.5 billion into the sector in 2025 alone, Brooks argues that expectations for rapid commercialization are wildly unrealistic, predicting a painful correction as technical hurdles like dexterity, battery life, and cost remain unsolved. As investments skyrocket amid AI’s glow, his words serve as a cautionary tale for investors and innovators alike.
For robotics enthusiasts, VCs chasing the next big thing, and those tracking the $100 billion humanoid market projection by 2030, Brooks’ bubble call highlights a disconnect between hype and hardware reality. Let’s unpack his rationale, the bubble’s anatomy, and potential fallout.
Brooks’ Critique: Hype Over Hardware in Humanoid Robotics
Brooks, whose Roomba revolutionized consumer bots, didn’t mince words during his MIT Sloan talk: Humanoid robots like Tesla’s Optimus (priced at $20,000-$30,000 target) and Figure’s workforce models promise factory-floor miracles, but “we’re years away from anything practical.” He points to persistent challenges—grasping irregular objects, navigating unstructured environments, and operating 24/7 without frequent charging—that echo the 1980s AI winter.
Key pain points Brooks highlighted:
- Technical Gaps: Current prototypes excel in demos but falter in real-world variability; energy efficiency lags, with batteries lasting mere hours.
- Economic Illusions: Labor costs savings sound compelling ($10/hour vs. $30 for humans), but scaling production to millions remains a pipe dream.
- Investor Blind Spot: VCs, dazzled by AI integration (e.g., OpenAI’s backing of Figure), overlook the “plumbing” of robotics—sensors, actuators, and software reliability.
This isn’t Brooks’ first rodeo; he famously bet against self-driving cars’ timelines in 2019, a wager he’s winning as Waymo and Cruise hit regulatory snags.
The Bubble’s Fuel: $2.5B VC Surge and Big-Name Bets
2025 has seen humanoid robotics explode, with funding up 150% YoY. Tesla’s Optimus hype at We, Robot event drew $1B in pre-orders, while Figure AI’s $675M round valued it at $2.6B. Boston Dynamics (Hyundai-owned) and Agility Robotics are scaling pilots, but Brooks sees echoes of dotcom’s “build it and they will come” fallacy.
Funding snapshot:
| Company/Project | 2025 Funding/Valuation | Key Backers | Brooks’ Take |
|---|---|---|---|
| Figure AI | $675M / $2.6B | OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia | “AI brains without robot bodies—hype mismatch.” |
| Tesla Optimus | Internal; $20K target | Tesla (Musk’s vision) | “Show demos, not deployments; years from factories.” |
| Agility Robotics | $150M Series B | DCVC, TDK Ventures | “Digit humanoid promising, but cost barriers loom.” |
| Boston Dynamics | Acquired for $1.1B | Hyundai | “Atlas flips are cool, but not commercial yet.” |
Total sector VC: $2.5B, rivaling early autonomous vehicle funding, but with fewer proven use cases.
Parallels to Past Bubbles: Dotcom, AI Winters, and Lessons
Brooks draws direct lines to history:
- Dotcom (2000): Pets.com’s $300M valuation on e-commerce dreams collapsed when logistics failed—mirroring humanoids’ dexterity woes.
- AI Winter (1980s/90s): Billions wasted on expert systems that couldn’t generalize, much like today’s overreliance on large language models for robot control.
- Crypto 2022: NFT sales crashed 90% from peaks; Brooks warns humanoids could follow if ROI timelines slip from “2026” to “2035.”
The risk? A 50-70% valuation wipeout, per McKinsey, as investors flee unprofitable pilots. Yet, Brooks tempers: “Bubbles burst, but survivors like Amazon emerged stronger.”
Implications: Navigating the Humanoid Hype Cycle
For investors, diversify beyond pure plays—focus on enablers like chipmakers (Nvidia up 20% on robot demand). Companies should prioritize niche apps (warehouses over homes) to weather the pop. Policymakers may need subsidies akin to CHIPS Act for US robotics edge.
Broader: A burst could slow innovation, but Brooks sees long-term promise—”humanoids will transform labor, just not next year.” With labor shortages (e.g., 2M US manufacturing jobs unfilled), the tech’s utility is real, bubble or not.
Conclusion: Brooks’ Bubble Call – Prick It Before It Pops?
Rodney Brooks’ declaration that “we are in a humanoid robot bubble” is a sobering reminder: Amid $2.5B in funding and Tesla dreams, robotics needs grit over glamour. Like dotcom’s ashes birthed Google, this hype could forge practical bots—if survivors heed the warnings. As 2026 looms, watch for deployment milestones; a miss could deflate valuations fast. MIT
