Polymarket, one of the largest crypto-based prediction markets globally, is set to re-enter the U.S. market after receiving regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The approval comes via a no-action letter from the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight and Clearing & Risk, which relaxes certain swap data reporting and record-keeping obligations for event contracts executed through QCX LLC and cleared via QC Clearing LLC.
Key Enabling Moves
- In July 2025, Polymarket acquired QCX, a derivatives exchange, and QC Clearing, a CFTC-licensed clearinghouse (collectively “QCEX”) for US$112 million. This provided the regulated infrastructure needed to operate legally in the U.S. under CFTC oversight.
- The company had previously blocked U.S. users since early 2022 following a settlement with the CFTC for operating unregistered event-based markets. Regulatory investigations (both civil and criminal) by U.S. authorities were formally closed in mid-2025.
Impacts & Context
- The move allows Polymarket to return under a regulated framework, giving U.S. users access to its prediction markets for politics, sports, pop culture, and other real-world events.
- It marks a broader shift in how prediction markets are being perceived by regulators—less as illicit betting platforms and more as regulated financial/exchange-based contracts.
- Investors are responding: Polymarket has attracted investment from 1789 Capital (associated with Donald Trump Jr.) and seen rising valuation estimates as it readies for the U.S. relaunch. Business Insider
Challenges & What to Watch
- Even with the no-action letter, full CFTC approval and compliance with all regulatory requirements are still necessary. The no-action letter doesn’t cover everything; it’s limited in scope.
- Predictive markets still face legal ambiguity in many U.S. states; state gambling laws could conflict with federal regulation of event contracts.
- User trust and market integrity will matter, especially given past scrutiny over Polymarket’s operating practices.
- Timing of full rollout, fees, and market availability may differ depending on license conditions and regulatory oversight.
Why It Matters
- For users: access to prediction markets that were previously restricted, within legal protection.
- For the industry: validation of prediction markets as a legitimate financial instrument under U.S. law.
- For policy/regulators: sets precedent for how platforms combining crypto, speculative outcomes, and event markets might be treated.
Conclusion
Polymarket’s US reentry under CFTC oversight is a milestone both for the company and the wider prediction market ecosystem. With infrastructure in place via QCEX, regulatory clarity improving, and legal investigations closed, the stage is set for its legally compliant return. Yet, full return depends on satisfying remaining regulatory requirements, navigating state-level laws, and maintaining transparency.
