Between April and May 2025, India’s exports to Turkey plummeted by over 50%, crashing from $741 million to just $351 million. At the same time, imports from Turkey fell sharply from $451 million to $185 million, as bilateral trade connections weakened dramatically.
🧭 Key Drivers Behind the Export Collapse
- Geopolitical Fallout Post–Operation Sindoor
Turkey’s alleged support for Pakistan during the India–Pakistan conflict triggered a widespread backlash in India. This led to grassroots and business-led boycott campaigns calling for severance of commercial ties - Consumer & Trader-Led Boycott Movement
Trader associations across India—including in Prayagraj and Assam—acted quickly. Local businesses stopped importing Turkish marble, apples, jewellery, and other goods worth hundreds of crores. E-commerce platforms also pulled Turkish brands offline. - Drop in Government Procurement
Government-affiliated purchases of Turkish machinery and petroleum products also declined, signaling institutional cooling of trade relations in response to public sentiment and diplomatic signals.
📊 Annual Trade & Sector Impact
| Measure | FY 2024‑25 Data |
|---|---|
| Exports to Turkey | $5.72 billion (down ~15%) |
| Imports from Turkey | $2.84 billion (down ~17%) |
| Trade Surplus | Falls to ~$2.7 billion — a decade low |
Exports are concentrated in engineering goods, electronics, chemicals, and auto parts; imports largely include apples, marble, gold, and petroleum—items heavily hit by boycott-induced stoppages
🧠 Broader Implications
- Minimal macro exposure: Despite a precipitous decline, India’s trade with Turkey represented just 1.5% of total exports (~$6.65 billion in 2023‑24) and 0.5% of imports, limiting systemic risk.([turn0search5])
- Economic symbolism: The shift demonstrates the power of public sentiment and decentralized boycott movements in shaping trade flows, even without formal government bans.
- Export diversification pressure: Indian exporters reliant on Turkish markets—especially in engineering—may need to pivot to other regions as demand erodes.
🔮 What Comes Next
- Early FY 26 Risks: With continued boycott sentiment, trade totals could further contract unless diplomatic ties stabilize. Trade bodies and consumer federations continue calling for restrictions against Turkey and Azerbaijan.
- Market realignment: Indian buyers are sourcing marble from Italy, apples from Iran/New Zealand, and shifting tourism and trade to alternate destinations.
- Policy evolution remains cautious: Despite mounting pressure, the Indian government has not enacted formal trade bans; navigation between economic and strategic imperatives remains delicate.
✅ Final Take
India’s exports to Turkey collapsed by more than 50% within a single month—a stark result of geopolitical fallout, grassroots boycott campaigns, and declining procurement. While India’s trade exposure to Turkey is relatively modest, the abrupt shift emphasizes how public sentiment and diplomatic dynamics can reshape commercial ties swiftly.
