India’s diesel shipments to Europe saw a staggering 137% year-on-year surge, reaching 242,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August 2025. This dramatic jump reflects European buyers’ urgent efforts to avoid supply disruptions ahead of the European Union’s upcoming ban on fuels refined from Russian crude.The Economic Times
Background: EU Ban Tightens Fuel Sourcing Ahead of 2026
With the European Union set to ban imports of fuels refined from Russian crude starting January 2026, Europe has acted swiftly to secure alternative sources. This anticipation is driving the sharp increase in diesel imports from India, positioning Indian refiners as important swing suppliers amid geopolitical shifts.
Export Dynamics: Record Volumes and Diverse Estimates
In August, India averaged 242,000 bpd of diesel exports to Europe—a 137% increase compared to August last year. Tracking firms report varying figures: Kpler confirmed the ET estimate, while Vortexa pegged exports at approximately 228,316 bpd, a 166% year-on-year rise and a 36% increase over July
Drivers of the Surge: Maintenance, Winter Demand, and Sanctions
Several factors contributed to this spike:
- Unexpected refinery maintenance: Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands advanced its turnaround schedule, disrupting supply, particularly to Rotterdam.
- Anticipated winter demand: Europe is stockpiling ahead of colder months and tightening regulatory constraints.
- Sanctions landscape: The looming EU ban on Russian-refined fuels has compelled buyers to diversify quickly.
Kpler’s Sumit Ritolia noted that this late August push seems aimed at compensating for unexpected disruptions and preparing for post-ban market realities.
Broader Impact: India’s Role in Global Fuel Markets
India’s total diesel exports in August rose to approximately 603,000 bpd, a 17% increase over both July and the same month last year.
While U.S. officials have criticized Indian refiners, accusing them of indirectly enabling Russia’s revenue flow, India has defended its trading practices. It emphasizes that importing and exporting processed fuel is legal and reflects global market dynamics.
What’s Next: Sustained Demand or Regulatory Headwinds?
- European demand is expected to remain firm through late 2025, especially as Middle Eastern refineries enter maintenance, further tightening supplies
- Sanctions enforcement will be pivotal. EU importers must verify the origin of crude, complicating compliance for refiners like Reliance Industries.
- If Europe halts fuel imports from India, analysts suggest supply could realign—Middle East may fill the gap, and India might redirect exports to emerging markets.
