On Thursday, February 26, 2026, market data revealed a historic shift in the Indian electronics landscape: for the first time in nearly a decade, the combined revenue of the largest Chinese electronics firms in India has contracted.
After years of aggressive expansion, brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, OnePlus, and Realme saw their combined revenue fall by 4.5% in FY25, a stark reversal from the 42% growth they enjoyed just a year prior.
Why the “Chinese Brigade” is Sliding
The decline isn’t just a fluctuation; it’s the result of a structural “premium pivot” in the Indian consumer mindset.
- Death of the “Budget” Stronghold: The market share of phones priced below ₹20,000—the traditional bread and butter for Chinese brands—plunged from 38% in 2023 to just 29% in 2025.
- The Rise of Premium (₹45,000+): While budget sales fell, the premium segment exploded, growing from a 36% retail value share in 2023 to 47% in 2025. This shift directly benefited Apple and Samsung, who are capturing the value lost by Chinese players.
- “RAMageddon” (The Memory Crisis): A global shortage of memory chips (DRAM and NAND), fueled by the AI infrastructure boom, has driven up component costs. Analysts warn that sub-₹10,000 phones are becoming “permanently uneconomical,” forcing Chinese brands to either raise prices or exit the low-end segment.
Winner vs. Losers (FY25 Revenue)
While most Chinese giants “lost ground,” one brand managed to swim against the tide:
| Brand | Revenue Performance (FY25) | Strategy |
| Vivo | +11% Growth | Successfully pivoted to a premium portfolio and strong offline retail presence. |
| Oppo | -38% Decline | Attributed to “lower business volumes” and a lack of high-margin flagship traction. |
| Xiaomi / Realme | Contracted | Struggled as their core budget/mid-range segments shrank. |
| Apple | +18% Growth | Reached ₹79,378 Cr in sales; now accounts for 28% of total market value. |
| Samsung | +12% Growth | Hit ₹1.11 lakh Cr in revenue, leading the market in total value. |
The “Smartphone Paradox” of 2026
Despite the domestic sales slump for Chinese brands, India’s overall smartphone industry is actually hitting new milestones:
- Top Export Category: In 2025, smartphones officially became India’s #1 export category ($30.1 billion), overtaking automotive diesel fuel for the first time.
- The “Apple” Effect: 76% of these exports are iPhones, reflecting the success of the government’s PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes.
- Future Outlook: IDC projects a 12–15% decline in total domestic smartphone volumes for 2026—the steepest downturn in years—as rising costs and a weakening rupee continue to squeeze the mass market.
What’s Next?
To counter this, the Indian government is reportedly in talks to launch “PLI 2.0” starting in April 2026. This new incentive scheme aims to help local manufacturers compete with China’s supply chain advantages, which have recently improved due to a change in global tariffs.
