China has achieved a major economic milestone in 2025 — its trade surplus has crossed the $1 trillion mark in the first 11 months, for the first time ever.
According to official trade data, November alone saw a surplus of around US$111.68 billion, helping push the year-to-date surplus past $1 trillion.
Why the surplus ballooned: exports rebound, broader markets
- In November, China’s exports rose by 5.9% year-on-year, reversing a decline seen in the prior month.
- Imports grew modestly — by about 1.9% year-on-year — but import growth lagged exports, leading to a widening gap.
- Export growth came not from the U.S. (where shipments dropped sharply), but from other global markets — including the European Union, Southeast Asia, and other regions.
- The shift away from the U.S. reflects a strategic re-orientation: Chinese exporters are diversifying markets, helped by changes in global demand and possibly favourable currency and price conditions.
What it reveals about China’s economy and global trade
- The milestone underscores that China remains heavily reliant on external demand: stronger exports are compensating for weak domestic demand.
- The surplus also reflects China’s shift toward manufacturing, technology, and export-oriented growth — even amid global headwinds and rising trade tensions.
- For the global economy, such a large surplus from China may worsen trade imbalances, put pressure on competing exporters, and reignite political and trade pushback from major trading partners.
What could follow: Risks, reactions, and next-year outlook
- Some countries may respond via tariffs, distrust, or trade policy changes, especially if surplus-driven trade is seen as unfair competition.
- China may face internal pressure to boost domestic demand and consumption, to balance trade-driven growth with sustainable domestic growth.
- Exporters globally may rethink supply chains — some firms could shift manufacturing away from China, seeking diversification to respond to geopolitical and trade-imbalances concerns.
Final Thought
Crossing the $1 trillion trade surplus threshold in 2025 is a landmark for China, showcasing the strength and resilience of its export sector. But this milestone also highlights deep structural features: heavy reliance on foreign demand, growing global trade imbalances, and mounting pressure on China — and the world — to adapt.
