China Launches Antitrust Probe into Qualcomm Over Chipset Practices in 2025

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has launched an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm, the US-based chipmaker, in September 2025, focusing on its chipset pricing, licensing practices, and market dominance in 5G and AI chipsets. This probe, reported by Reuters on September 20, 2025, comes amid escalating US-China tech tensions and follows Qualcomm’s strong performance in India, where its Snapdragon chipsets hold a 40% share in the premium smartphone market. The investigation could lead to hefty fines or restrictions, impacting Qualcomm’s $38 billion revenue stream. In this article, we analyze the probe’s scope, its potential impact on Qualcomm, and its broader implications for global tech markets. Reuters

Details of China’s Antitrust Probe

The SAMR’s investigation targets Qualcomm’s business practices in China, the world’s largest smartphone market with over 900 million users. Key aspects include:

• Focus Areas: The probe examines Qualcomm’s chipset pricing, patent licensing fees, and potential anti-competitive practices in 5G and AI chip supplies.
• Market Dominance: Qualcomm commands a 60% share of China’s premium chipset market, powering devices from Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo.
• Allegations: SAMR is investigating whether Qualcomm’s royalty fees and bundled licensing deals stifle competition, particularly for local chipmakers like HiSilicon.
• Potential Penalties: Fines could reach 10% of Qualcomm’s China revenue (est. $15 billion in 2024), alongside possible licensing reforms.

This follows a 2015 SAMR probe that fined Qualcomm $975 million for similar practices, indicating heightened scrutiny.

Reasons Behind the Probe

China’s investigation is driven by strategic and economic motives:

• Tech Sovereignty: China aims to bolster domestic chipmakers like HiSilicon and SMIC, reducing reliance on US firms amid trade restrictions.
• US-China Tensions: The probe aligns with retaliatory measures against US policies, such as Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee and export controls on semiconductors.
• Market Dynamics: Qualcomm’s dominance in 5G chipsets, critical for AI and IoT, threatens China’s tech ambitions, especially in smartphones and autonomous vehicles.
• Consumer Impact: High licensing fees allegedly inflate device costs, prompting SAMR to prioritize affordability in China’s competitive market.

Qualcomm’s Response and Market Context

Qualcomm has pledged cooperation with SAMR but defends its practices:

• Official Statement: Qualcomm claims its licensing is “fair and transparent,” emphasizing innovation investments ($8 billion R&D in 2024).
• Market Strength: With Snapdragon’s 40% share in India’s premium segment and global leadership in 5G, Qualcomm argues it faces competition from MediaTek and Apple’s Bionic chips.
• Prior Precedent: The 2015 fine led to revised licensing terms, and Qualcomm expects negotiations to mitigate penalties.

Implications for Qualcomm and Global Tech

The probe could have far-reaching effects:

1. Financial Impact: A fine of $1.5 billion (10% of China revenue) could dent Qualcomm’s $38 billion annual earnings, impacting R&D and stock value.
2. Market Access: Restrictions on licensing or sales in China could weaken Qualcomm’s 60% premium chipset share, boosting rivals like MediaTek.
3. Global Trade Tensions: The probe escalates US-China tech conflicts, paralleling OpenAI’s antitrust case against Google and India’s 15% tourist drop to the US.
4. Innovation Ripple Effects: Constraints on Qualcomm could slow 5G and AI chipset advancements, affecting global OEMs like Samsung and Xiaomi.

The Bigger Picture: Global Tech Antitrust Trends

China’s probe aligns with 2025’s global antitrust wave, from OpenAI’s complaints against Google to Abu Dhabi’s $3.5B AI push. In India, where family businesses drive 70% of GDP and Snapdragon holds 40% of the premium market, Qualcomm’s challenges could shift supply chains toward local chipmakers. The probe underscores the intersection of tech dominance and geopolitical strategy.

What’s Next for Qualcomm?

Key developments to monitor:

• SAMR’s investigation timeline, with preliminary findings expected by Q1 2026.
• Potential settlement talks to reduce fines or adjust licensing terms.
• Qualcomm’s strategic pivot to diversify markets, leveraging India’s $20B semiconductor scheme.
• Impact on global 5G and AI chipset supply chains amid trade tensions.

Conclusion

China’s 2025 antitrust probe into Qualcomm, targeting its chipset pricing and licensing, poses a significant challenge to the chipmaker’s $15 billion China business. As SAMR investigates anti-competitive practices, Qualcomm faces potential fines and market restrictions, amplifying US-China tech tensions. The outcome could reshape global chipset dynamics and innovation.