On Thursday, March 12, 2026, new traffic data from Similarweb confirmed that ChatGPT’s dominance in the AI web traffic market has hit a major inflection point.
While OpenAI’s chatbot still leads the market, its share of global AI web traffic fell to 61.7% in February 2026, a significant drop from the 75.7% it held exactly one year ago.
The 14-Point Slide
The decline represents a 14-percentage-point loss in market share over 12 months, signaling that the “early mover” monopoly is officially over.
- Absolute Traffic: Despite the share drop, ChatGPT is not “dying”—it still recorded a massive 5.35 billion visits in February. However, its year-over-year growth was just 37%, compared to the triple-digit growth of its rivals.
- The “Incumbency” Phase: Analysts note that ChatGPT is transitioning from a “momentum play” to an “incumbent play,” where it maintains a large, habitual user base but struggles to capture new growth at the same rate as emerging competitors.
- The “Ads” Factor: Some speculate that the rollout of ads in the Free and Go tiers on February 9, 2026, may have caused a slight “friction dip” in engagement among casual users.
Who is Winning the Traffic?
The “lost” traffic has largely been absorbed by Google Gemini, which has become the primary beneficiary of the market’s diversification.
| AI Platform | February 2026 Traffic Share | YoY Growth (%) |
| ChatGPT | 61.7% | +37.0% |
| Google Gemini | 20.4% | +643.6% |
| Grok (xAI) | 2.9% | +480.2% |
| Claude (Anthropic) | 2.8% | +297.7% |
| Perplexity | 1.5% | +39.3% |
| DeepSeek | 2.4% | -55.6% (The only loser) |
Why the Shift?
According to the report, three factors are driving the migration away from ChatGPT:
- The “Gemini 3” Effect: The launch of the Gemini 3 family and the Nano Banana 2 image generator has closed the “capability gap,” making Google a default choice for users already in the Google Workspace ecosystem.
- Specialization: Users are increasingly using Claude 4.5 for long-form writing and coding, and Perplexity for real-time research, rather than using ChatGPT as a “one-stop-shop.”
- The “Pentagon” Backlash: Some user groups (particularly in the tech community) reportedly pulled back from OpenAI following the high-profile U.S. Department of Defense deal in late 2025, favoring more “neutral” or open alternatives.
The “Stickiness” Save
It’s not all bad news for OpenAI. While traffic share is down, user loyalty remains high. ChatGPT’s DAU/MAU ratio (a measure of daily habit) sits at 36%, nearly double Gemini’s 21%. This suggests that while more people are trying Google, the core power-users are still staying with OpenAI.
