In a surprising turn for OpenAI, consumer spending on ChatGPT subscriptions has flatlined across major European markets since May 2025, even as user numbers continue to climb. According to a new Deutsche Bank research note, countries like the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain have seen no meaningful increase in the monthly revenue generated from paying ChatGPT users, raising questions about conversion rates, pricing models, and market saturation.
What the Data Says
- The stagnation is based on anonymized financial data from “dbDataInsights,” which tracks spending behavior in the key European markets.
- While ChatGPT’s global user base is growing, with weekly usage hitting significant milestones, the number of people willing to pay for premium features has not increased in these European markets.
- Historically, similar plateaus in spending have been observed during summer months, but Deutsche Bank’s analysis notes that, unlike past years, the usual resurgence in spending late in summer or early autumn has not yet materialized in 2025.
Possible Causes of the Plateau
- Free-User Growth vs. Paid Conversion
Free usage appears to be surging, but conversion from free to paying customers is not keeping pace. New users may be exploring the service but not enough are finding the value proposition compelling enough to pay. Computing - Price Sensitivity and Economic Headwinds
Many European consumers face inflationary pressures, higher energy costs, and tighter budgets, which may reduce willingness to spend on “premium” digital services, especially those perceived as non-essential. - Saturation in Key Markets
In countries where ChatGPT has been available for longer, most of the early adopters who would pay for premium features may already be subscribers, making new growth harder. - Competition & Alternatives
There are other AI services and tools emerging. Some users may be opting for free or cheaper alternatives, or using ChatGPT’s free tier rather than paying for GPT-4 or other premium models.
Impacts on OpenAI & Strategic Implications
- Revenue Growth Pressure
Flat spending means OpenAI may face pressure to find ways to boost average revenue per user (ARPU) in these markets. - Shift in Focus
The company might need to prioritize product enhancements, bundled services, or localized features to encourage paid subscriptions. - Marketing & Promotions
More aggressive promotions, discounts, or feature trials could help convert more users in Europe. - Experiment with Pricing
Adjusting pricing tiers or creating localized pricing/subscription options could help adapt to regional economic differences.
What’s Next to Watch
- Will spending pick up again in the autumn after summer lulls?
- How will OpenAI respond—through feature differentiation, pricing adjustments, or new marketing campaigns?
- Data on what percentage of free users are upgrading to paid tiers, and whether that ratio improves or worsens.
- Whether this trend is unique to Europe or also visible in other regions like Latin America or Asia.
Conclusion
While ChatGPT’s user base in Europe continues to grow, consumer spending has hit a plateau since May 2025 in major markets—highlighting a growing gap between user interest and willingness to pay. For OpenAI, the challenge now is to reignite subscriber growth and elevate value perception in economically pressured regions.
