Gen. David Thompson, Vice Chief of Space Operations of the U.S. Space Force, has warned that China is developing its space capabilities “at twice the rate” of the U.S. He suggested that 2030 is “not an unreasonable estimate” for when China could overtake in certain strategic space capabilities.
- A recent report published by space-policy analysts found that China’s commercial space activity, including private launch firms and satellite constellation projects, has accelerated rapidly in recent years.
- Another report states that China could overtake the U.S. in the “new space race” — particularly in areas like lunar missions, commercial launch frequency, and space infrastructure — in 5 to 10 years, if current investment and policy trends continue.
Key Areas Where China Is Advancing
Several projects and trends suggest that China is not just catching up, but closing the gap in multiple key domains:
| Domain | What China Is Doing | Where U.S. Still Leads / Difficulty |
|---|---|---|
| Lunar Exploration | China is planning Chang’e-7 and Chang’e-8 missions (2026, 2029) targeting the lunar south pole, plus research into a lunar research station. Space | U.S. Artemis program aims to return humans to the moon around 2026/2027, but has experienced delays and budget constraints. |
| Space Stations | China’s Tiangong station is fully operational (since ~2022) and is being used continuously. | The International Space Station (ISS) is aging, slated for retirement around 2030. U.S. is looking to commercial replacements. |
| Launch Frequency & Commercial Sector | Chinese private space firms have raised substantial capital, launch sites increasing, more domestic launches, competition, cost control. | The U.S. has strong private industry (SpaceX, Blue Origin etc.), but faces regulatory, supply chain, cost, and funding issues. Some U.S. projects have delays. |
| Technological Capabilities | China is working on in-orbit satellite servicing/refueling, developing rockets for heavy lift, planning ISRU (in-situ resource utilization) missions at the moon, advancing Mars sample return mission. | The U.S. similarly has ambitious plans but must balance public budgets, emergencies, regulation. The innovation from private sector is strong, but challenges remain. |
What Would China Need to Do to Truly Surpass by 2030-2035
For China to overtake the U.S. in many space domains within ~10 years, several pieces need to fall into place:
- Sustained Investment & Policy Support — continued high government funding, stable space policy, support for private sector, regulatory streamlining.
- Technological Breakthroughs — success in lunar landings with crew, Mars sample returns, robust heavy lift rockets, reusable launch systems, etc.
- International Partnerships & Soft Power — Building alliances, sharing (or controlling) satellite infrastructure, offering international cooperation to other nations as with the Tiangong station or the planned International Lunar Research Station.
- Commercial Innovation — private firms scaling up fast, reducing costs, frequent launches, new business models (e.g. satellite constellations, space tourism, lunar commerce).
- Addressing U.S. Weaknesses — delays, cost overruns, regulatory friction, budget fluctuations—if the U.S. fails to match or manage these well, China’s pace advantage could translate to overtaking in certain subareas.
Challenges That Could Slow China’s Rise
- Complexity of Human Spaceflight & Safety — crewed missions are difficult, costly, risky. China must maintain very high reliability.
- International Norms & Regulation — as China’s ambitions grow, so will scrutiny from global norms, export controls, technology sharing constraints.
- Private Sector Maturity — Some Chinese commercial space companies are still in relatively early stage; matching U.S. private sector flexibility and innovation has limits.
- Surprise Delays & Technical Failures — lunar or Mars missions, reusable rockets, etc., often encounter unexpected setbacks. Margins for error narrow when timelines are tight.
- U.S. Response — increased U.S. funding, accelerating projects, new partnerships or private sector incentives may blunt or even reverse China’s relative gains.
Conclusion
Based on the evidence, it is plausible that China could surpass the U.S. in certain aspects of the space race within the next 5-10 years — particularly in lunar exploration, launch frequency, orbital infrastructure, and commercial satellite operations. Full overtaking in all domains (military, deep space, exploration, scientific missions) by 2030 may be ambitious, but not impossible if China continues on its current trajectory and the U.S. does not significantly accelerate.
So yes — the claim that “China can surpass the U.S. in the space race within 10 years” has credible backing, though it depends heavily on policy, budget, execution, and how much and how fast the U.S. responds.
