U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a fresh warning to India, hinting at “phase 2 and phase 3” sanctions as part of his administration’s response to New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian crude oil. Trump’s comments came during a joint press briefing with Polish President Karol Nawrocki, where he sharply rebuked a reporter’s question about his approach to Russian President Vladimir Putin. In response, Trump asserted that further sanctions are still “on the table,” saying: “I haven’t done phase two yet or phase three.”
This development follows two rounds of economic actions already targeting India. First, Washington imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian imports in August 2025. Soon after, Trump announced an additional 25% duty on Indian shipments linked to Russian oil purchases, effectively doubling tariffs to 50% on a wide range of Indian goods. reuters
Trump defended his stance by arguing that the measures have already cost Russia “hundreds of billions of dollars,” positioning them as among the most severe penalties imposed during his presidency. However, he reiterated that India cannot continue buying Russian crude without facing “serious consequences.” His remark, “If India buys, India’s got big problems,” underscores the increasing strain on U.S.–India relations.
India, meanwhile, has defended its decision to continue importing discounted Russian oil, citing energy security and affordability as national priorities. Indian officials argue that Russian crude has played a vital role in managing inflation and keeping fuel costs lower for its vast population. Experts also point out that cutting off this supply abruptly could destabilize India’s economy and threaten its post-pandemic recovery.
The possibility of “phase 2 and phase 3” sanctions is raising concerns among global analysts. Possible measures could include tighter financial restrictions, sanctions on Indian banks handling Russian oil payments, or broader penalties on India’s energy sector. Such steps could complicate India’s trade networks and force New Delhi to accelerate diversification of its energy imports.
For Washington, the strategy appears aimed at signaling toughness against Russia while also pressuring India to align more closely with Western sanctions. However, experts warn this could push India closer to Moscow and Beijing, strengthening non-Western alliances such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This realignment could weaken U.S. influence in South Asia at a time when China’s presence in the region is already expanding.
Why It Matters
- Escalating U.S. Pressure: Trump’s reference to additional sanction phases signals a readiness to further tighten the screws on India’s energy policies.
- Risk to Strategic Partnership: Sanctions threaten to undercut growing U.S.–India defense and tech cooperation, potentially damaging long-term ties.
- India’s Energy Dilemma: With over a billion people to serve, India argues that access to affordable Russian crude is crucial for domestic stability.
- Global Geopolitical Shift: If Washington continues to harden its stance, India may deepen cooperation with Russia, China, and other emerging powers, creating a new global alignment.
- Economic Impact: A prolonged tariff war could increase costs for Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services, hitting jobs and growth.
