Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by an estimated 92% compared to pre-conflict levels. This near-total collapse in maritime activity follows the massive escalation of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war over the past weekend.
The disruption is being described by energy analysts at Kpler and Lloyd’s List as one of the sharpest shocks to global energy flows in modern history, effectively rendering the world’s most critical chokepoint “functionally shut” to commercial shipping.
The “Insurance Exodus”
While the waterway remains physically open, it has become commercially impassable for the vast majority of the global fleet.
- Coverage Cancellations: On March 2, major marine insurers (P&I Clubs) issued 72-hour notices cancelling war-risk extensions for the Persian Gulf.
- Prohibitive Premiums: For the few operators still willing to transit, “Additional Premiums” have surged from 0.2% to over 1.0% of a vessel’s total value, adding millions of dollars to the cost of a single voyage.
- The “AIS Blackout” Trend: Kpler reports that a small number of tankers (primarily Chinese- and Iranian-flagged) are still transiting but are doing so under AIS blackouts (switching off tracking signals) to avoid detection or targeting.
Military and Kinetic Risks
The traffic drop is a direct response to a “live fire” environment in and around the 33-km wide strait:
- IRGC Warnings: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) has broadcast warnings via VHF radio stating they “fully control” the strait and will target any vessel that ignores their combat zone declarations.
- Targeted Tankers: At least seven tankers have reportedly been struck by drones or missiles off the coasts of Oman, the UAE, and Bahrain since the conflict began on February 28.
- Operation Epic Fury: Ongoing U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue to target Iranian naval assets near the Gulf of Oman, creating a high risk of collateral damage for commercial ships.
Global Supply Impact
The 92% drop in traffic effectively strands roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply and a significant portion of global LNG (particularly from Qatar).
| Country | Dependency on Hormuz Traffic |
| Pakistan | Imports 90% of its oil via the Strait. |
| Japan | Sources 95% of its crude oil through this route. |
| India | Approximately 40% to 50% of monthly oil imports are at risk. |
| China | Roughly 40% of its total oil imports pass through the Strait. |
The “Cape of Good Hope” Shift
With Hormuz off-limits, major shipping giants like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC have officially suspended all transits in the region. Most are now rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, a move that adds roughly 10–14 days to voyage times and has caused global freight rates to triple in some basins.
