In a major strategic reversal that has sent shockwaves through the tech sector, Nvidia has reportedly put its plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI “on ice” as of January 30, 2026.
The deal, which was first announced as a non-binding Letter of Intent in September 2025, was intended to fund the deployment of 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure. However, according to a Wall Street Journal report on Friday, internal skepticism at Nvidia regarding OpenAI’s financial discipline and business model has brought the mega-deal to a standstill.
1. The Breakdown: “Non-Binding” and Stalled
The collapse of the talks marks a significant cooling in the relationship between the world’s most valuable chipmaker and its largest AI software customer.
- Internal Doubts: Nvidia executives reportedly raised concerns about the “scope and structure” of the $100 billion commitment, specifically questioning the risks associated with such a massive, concentrated bet on a single entity.
- The “Bluff” Factor: CEO Jensen Huang has privately told associates that the $100 billion figure was always non-binding and never finalized.
- Reworking the Deal: Conversations have now pivoted toward a significantly smaller equity investment—likely in the “tens of billions”—as part of OpenAI’s broader $100 billion fundraising round.
2. Why Nvidia Is Pulling Back
Industry insiders suggest that Nvidia’s caution stems from a combination of OpenAI’s internal management style and a changing competitive landscape.
- Financial Discipline: Huang has reportedly expressed reservations about OpenAI’s aggressive spending and perceived lack of fiscal restraint. OpenAI is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026 alone as it races to build “Project Stargate.”
- The Competition: Nvidia’s leadership pointed to the rapid rise of rivals like Alphabet’s Google and Anthropic, suggesting that OpenAI’s dominance is no longer guaranteed.
- Circular Financing Claims: Nvidia has faced growing criticism over “circular financing”—investing in customers who then use that money to buy Nvidia chips. By backing away from the $100 billion figure, Nvidia may be attempting to distance itself from these “financial engineering” labels.
3. The $100B Funding Gap
Nvidia’s retreat leaves a massive hole in OpenAI’s ambitious infrastructure plans, which require $500 billion over the next four years.
| Potential Investor | Status as of Jan 31, 2026 | Investment Target |
| Amazon | Active Negotiations | Up to $50 Billion |
| SoftBank | Active Negotiations | Up to $30 Billion |
| Microsoft | Evaluating | Under $10 Billion |
| Nvidia | Stalled / Reworking | $0 – $30 Billion (Down from $100B) |
4. Strategic Implications for 2026
The “Stargate” project—the $500 billion AI super-cluster—now faces its first major funding crisis.
- Amazon’s Opportunity: With Nvidia stepping back, Amazon (led personally by CEO Andy Jassy) is reportedly moving to fill the void, potentially leveraging the deal to push OpenAI toward AWS and away from its exclusive Microsoft Azure partnership.
- Market Sentiment: Following the news, Nvidia shares saw a minor pullback as investors weighed the loss of a guaranteed $100 billion “compute reservation” against the benefit of reduced financial risk.
Conclusion: The End of the “Blank Check” Era?
The stalling of the Nvidia-OpenAI mega-deal signals a new era of pragmatism in the AI race. For the past two years, “compute at any cost” was the mantra of Silicon Valley. Now, even the primary beneficiary of that spending—Nvidia—is signaling that a $100 billion check requires more than just a vision of AGI; it requires a disciplined, sustainable business model.
