India’s crude oil imports from Russia are on track to hit a six-month peak in December 2025, reflecting continued demand for discounted Moscow-origin barrels despite intensified Western sanctions and geopolitical pressure. Data from ship-tracking analytics firm Kpler shows imports reaching around 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest level since June 2025. Reuters
This marks the third consecutive month of rising Russian oil shipments to India, defying expectations of a significant drop following new US sanctions on Russia’s top oil exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil, which took effect in late November 2025.
Why December Imports Are Rising
Market analysts say multiple factors are contributing to the uptick:
- Pre-sanctions cargoes already booked are still in transit and being delivered to Indian ports.
- Indian buyers continue to secure discounted Russian crude, which remains price-competitive compared with Middle Eastern barrels even with trade tensions escalating.
- Despite sanctions pressure, Indian state-owned refiners and some private players maintain their purchases to meet domestic demand and refinery throughput targets.
The expected 1.85 mbd in December represents a slight increase from November’s roughly 1.83 mbd and a significant rise from October’s approximately 1.48 mbd — underscoring resilience in Russian crude flows to India
Geopolitical Context and Sanctions Impact
The surge in imports comes amid growing geopolitical tensions and sanctions aimed at curbing Russia’s energy revenue:
- The United States and some European countries have imposed sanctions on Russia’s key oil producers in response to the war in Ukraine.
- These sanctions seek to reduce Russia’s oil export earnings, yet India’s continuing import volumes — particularly from non-sanctioned entities or via complex trading channels — show that sanctions aren’t fully choking off flows. Moneycontrol
- The Russia–India strategic relationship remains strong, with leaders reaffirming energy cooperation even under foreign pressure.
What This Means for India’s Energy Strategy
India is the world’s third-largest crude oil importer, with Russia having overtaken Iraq as a leading source in recent years. Russian crude often makes up a substantial share of India’s total import mix due to cost advantages and long-standing bilateral ties.
The December peak suggests that New Delhi is balancing its energy needs with global diplomatic pressures, even as it faces calls from Western nations to reduce reliance on Russian energy supplies.
Outlook for 2026
While December figures reflect strong flows, forecasts vary for 2026:
- Some analysts project a moderation in imports early next year as sanctions bite more deeply and Indian refiners adjust sourcing strategies.
- However, discounted pricing from alternative Russian sellers and logistical workarounds could sustain imports at significant levels, albeit possibly below the recent six-month highs.
