Thiel Macro LLC, sold its entire stake in Nvidia during the third quarter of 2025. According to recent U.S. regulatory filings, Thiel’s fund off-loaded approximately 537,742 shares of Nvidia between July and September, and as of September 30 held zero shares of Nvidia. This exit comes amid rising concerns about an AI-driven valuation bubble.
What the Filings Show
- Thiel’s fund reported selling around 537,742 shares of Nvidia during Q3.
- The fund’s 13F filing confirms that by September 30 it no longer held Nvidia shares.
- The sale reportedly represented about 40% of the fund’s total equity holdings at the time.
- The estimated value of the stake sold is roughly US$100 million, based on the average Nvidia stock price during the period.
Why He Did It
AI-Valuation Concerns
Thiel has previously voiced caution about the surging valuations in AI-related stocks, suggesting that hype may be outpacing fundamentals. The Times of India His exit from Nvidia is seen by many analysts as a vote of caution on the broader AI hardware boom.
Portfolio Rebalancing
The move coincides with Thiel significantly reducing other large stakes (e.g., in Tesla Inc.) and redirecting capital into more broadly diversified, mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corporation.
This suggests a strategic pivot in his investment thesis away from niche high-end AI hardware toward more established tech platforms.
Signal Effect
Given Thiel’s prominence as a tech investor and early-stage backer of major companies, his exit raises a broader question mark around optimism in AI chip valuations and may influence other institutional investors.
Implications
For Nvidia
While Nvidia remains a dominant player in the AI chip sector, Thiel’s exit may highlight market sensitivity to valuation risk. Investors may become more selective and cautious around how much they attribute to future growth vs. present fundamentals.
For AI & Tech Sector
Thiel’s move adds to a growing narrative of rotation away from high-valuation hardware plays toward broader, established tech franchises. This may influence capital flows and valuations across the tech ecosystem.
For Investors
- Investors may review their exposure to AI-hardware stocks and consider valuation risk more seriously.
- The exit suggests that even those with strong conviction in AI are adjusting tactics.
- For those invested in Nvidia, the move doesn’t signal operational trouble for the company—but it may signal caution about growth expectations.
For Thiel’s Portfolio
By exiting Nvidia and reducing Tesla, Thiel’s fund appears sharpening focus on majors with longer-term platforms rather than speculative hardware bets. It may also signal hedging of short-term risk.
Background: Who is Peter Thiel?
Peter Thiel is a co-founder of PayPal Holdings, Inc. and an early investor in numerous tech companies. He runs Thiel Macro LLC and has earned a reputation for contrarian investment views and philosophical reflections on tech cycles. His prior comments comparing the AI boom to the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000 give context to his recent moves.
What to Watch Next
- Will other large investors follow Thiel’s lead and reduce exposure to Nvidia or similar AI-hardware stocks?
- How will Nvidia respond—will the company highlight its fundamentals and defend valuation?
- Will there be a broader reallocation of capital toward “platform” tech stocks (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) at the expense of chip makers?
- How will the AI hardware growth story evolve—will we see demand-side risks or execution delays that justify caution?
Conclusion
The fact that Peter Thiel fully exited Nvidia in Q3 2025 is a noteworthy development in the tech investment world. While Nvidia remains a major force in AI hardware, Thiel’s decision underscores the risk of valuation excess in the sector and signals a more cautious approach among seasoned investors. For market watchers, this exit serves both as a warning flag and a strategic inflection point in how AI investments may be viewed over the coming years.
