JPMorgan Chase, the $4 trillion banking giant, has issued a bullish update on Bitcoin, declaring the cryptocurrency undervalued relative to gold and forecasting a fair price target of $165,000 by the end of 2025. In a report released on October 2, 2025, analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted that Bitcoin’s current $2.3 trillion market cap would need to rise by 42% to align with the $6 trillion in private gold investments (ETFs, bars, coins) on a volatility-adjusted basis, implying significant upside if the “debasement trade”—driven by retail inflows and concerns over fiat currencies—continues. For investors, crypto analysts, and market strategists searching JPMorgan Bitcoin $165,000 target, Bitcoin undervalued vs gold 2025, or debasement trade Bitcoin, this projection—up from $126,000 in August—highlights Bitcoin’s maturing role as a risk-adjusted store of value, with its volatility-to-gold ratio falling below 2.0 for the first time since 2017, consuming just 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. Bitcoin, trading near $119,000 as of October 4, 2025, is now seen as $46,000 undervalued—a reversal from being $36,000 overvalued at the end of 2024—amid retail ETF inflows and gold’s rally. The analysis joins a chorus of bullish forecasts, with firms like Bernstein and Standard Chartered eyeing $200,000 by year-end.
JPMorgan’s Analysis: Volatility-Adjusted Gold Comparison
The bank’s model compares Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted market cap to gold’s private investment pool ($6 trillion in ETFs, bars, and coins). Bitcoin’s volatility-to-gold ratio has fallen below 2.0—the lowest since 2017—meaning it now consumes just 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. To match gold on this basis, Bitcoin’s cap must grow 42%, pushing its price to $165,000 from $119,000.
| Metric | Bitcoin Current | Gold Comparison | Implied Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $2.3 Trillion | $6 Trillion (Private Investments) | $3.3 Trillion |
| Volatility Ratio | <2.0 | 1.0 | N/A |
| Risk Capital | 1.85x Gold | Baseline | 42% Growth |
| Price | $119,000 | N/A | $165,000 |
Broader Forecasts and Market Momentum
JPMorgan’s target aligns with a bullish chorus: Bernstein and Standard Chartered eye $200,000 by year-end, while Citigroup forecasts $231,000 within 12 months. Retail investors lead the “debasement trade,” pouring into Bitcoin and gold ETFs since late 2024, with $2 billion weekly inflows. Institutional futures positioning lags, indicating retail dominance.
Conclusion: JPMorgan’s Bullish Bitcoin Benchmark
JPMorgan’s $165,000 Bitcoin fair price call amid undervaluation vs. gold is a vote for the debasement trade’s staying power, with 42% upside from $119,000. As retail inflows dominate, it’s a signal for diversified portfolios. For BTC holders, it’s validation—will gold’s rally propel the surge? The ratios realign. Tradingview
