In a chilling alert for the cryptocurrency world, Charles Edwards, founder and CEO of Capriole Investments, has warned that Bitcoin could go to zero if it fails to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography by next year. Edwards issued this starkest caution yet during an interview on the BG2 podcast on September 27, 2025, emphasizing that quantum computers could crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) as early as 2027–2033, potentially allowing hackers to steal funds from exposed addresses. With Bitcoin trading near $120,000 amid a bull run, this existential threat—coupled with a “Bitcoin Treasury Bubble”—poses the two biggest downside risks for BTC in the coming cycle, according to Edwards.
For investors riding Bitcoin’s highs, developers racing to secure the network, and policymakers eyeing quantum threats, Edwards’ call for an accelerated migration to post-quantum signatures is a wake-up call. As quantum hardware advances, the clock is ticking on Bitcoin’s foundational security. Let’s break down the warning, the technical risks, and steps toward resilience.
Edwards’ Warning: Quantum Threat and Treasury Bubble Risks
Edwards, a prominent Bitcoin analyst, framed the quantum danger as Bitcoin’s “core risk vector,” where exposed public keys—revealed during spending or in legacy formats—become vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm on a sufficiently powerful quantum machine. He urged: “We need to upgrade Bitcoin to be Quantum proof next year,” citing a recent August 2025 research preprint that timelines “cryptanalytically relevant” ECC-256 attacks between 2027–2033, with wide error bars but growing feasibility.
The “Treasury Bubble” refers to surging corporate Bitcoin holdings—now $10 billion+ across public firms—potentially inflating prices to unsustainable levels, risking a sharp correction if sentiment shifts. Edwards will expand on these “double threats” at TOKEN2049 on October 1, 2025, positioning quantum compromise as an existential “go to zero” scenario.
This echoes broader skepticism: Nobel economist Eugene Fama predicted Bitcoin’s collapse to zero within a decade in a 2025 podcast, citing its lack of intrinsic value. Yet, Edwards’ focus is technical, not philosophical—urging proactive upgrades over dismissal.
The Quantum Threat Explained: From Theory to Timeline
Bitcoin’s security hinges on ECC, where private keys derive public keys via mathematical hardness assumptions. Quantum computers, using qubits for parallel computation, could shatter this with Shor’s algorithm, deriving private keys from public ones in polynomial time.
Risk breakdown:
| Vulnerability | Description | Mitigation Window |
|---|---|---|
| Exposed Public Keys | Addresses that spend or use legacy P2PKH formats reveal keys, enabling theft. | Addresses with ~$3T BTC at risk if unupgraded by 2027. |
| Harvest Now, Decrypt Later | Attackers store encrypted data today for future quantum decryption. | All historical spends vulnerable; upgrade urgency now. |
| Timeline Estimates | 2027–2033 for ECC-256 breaks, per Dallaire-Démers preprint; hardware assumptions vary. | “Next year” for post-quantum migration to preempt. |
Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade (2021) hides public keys until spending, buying time, but full migration to algorithms like Dilithium or Falcon is essential.
Steps Toward Quantum Resilience: Community and Developer Action
Edwards advocates for a soft fork to integrate post-quantum signatures, estimating a one-year timeline if prioritized. Bitcoin Core developers have explored this since 2022, with proposals like BIP-340 (Schnorr) as a bridge.
Broader efforts:
- NIST Standards: Post-quantum cryptography finalized in 2024; Bitcoin integration via layered security.
- Industry Push: Quantum-resistant wallets from Ledger; exchanges like Binance testing upgrades.
- Treasury Bubble Check: Diversify holdings; monitor corporate adoption (e.g., MicroStrategy’s $10B BTC).
Skeptics like Fama dismiss Bitcoin’s value entirely, but Edwards sees quantum as a solvable engineering challenge—not a death knell.
Implications: A Wake-Up for Bitcoin’s $2 Trillion Ecosystem
Edwards’ warning could catalyze urgency: With $2 trillion in BTC market cap, a quantum breach might trigger mass exodus, amplifying the “Treasury Bubble” pop. For investors, it’s a hedge call—diversify to quantum-safe assets. Developers gain a roadmap; regulators, a security benchmark.
In a post-quantum world, Bitcoin’s adaptability—proven by SegWit and Taproot—could shine, but delay risks irrelevance.
Conclusion: Nanoseconds to Quantum Midnight – Act Now or Risk Zero
Hedge fund CEO Charles Edwards’ dire alert that Bitcoin could go to zero from quantum threats demands immediate action: Upgrade signatures next year or face a 2027–2033 reckoning. Coupled with the Treasury Bubble, it’s a dual peril for BTC’s bull run. Yet, with NIST tools ready, Bitcoin’s resilience could turn warning into strength—provided the community moves fast. newsbtc
