In the Economic Survey 2025–26, tabled in Parliament on January 29, 2026, India’s Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran issued a stark warning regarding a “low-probability but high-impact” global financial risk.
The Survey assigns a 10–20% probability to a systemic shock that could trigger a crisis worse than the 2008 global financial meltdown.
1. The “AI Debt Bomb” Warning
The CEA’s primary concern centers on what the Survey calls “leveraged AI infrastructure.”
- Off-Balance Sheet Debt: The report flags approximately $120 billion in data center and AI-related spending that has been moved off the balance sheets of major tech companies into Wall Street-backed Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs).
- Structural Opacity: This financial engineering mirrors the “shadow banking” and subprime mortgage complexities that preceded the 2008 crash.
- Concentration Risk: The Survey notes that the 10 largest S&P 500 companies now hold a disproportionate weight in global markets, creating a “fragile foundation” where a correction in tech valuations could trigger a cross-border contagion.
2. Three Global Scenarios for 2026
Nageswaran outlined three potential trajectories for the global economy this year:
| Scenario | Probability | Description |
| Business as in 2025 | 40–45% | Persistent geopolitical tensions and trade frictions continue but remain managed. |
| Disorderly Breakdown | 40–45% | Trade becomes coercive, sanctions proliferate, and supply chains realign under political pressure. |
| Systemic Shock Cascade | 10–20% | The Crisis Scenario: Financial, technological, and geopolitical stresses amplify each other, leading to a 2008-level collapse. |
3. India’s Position: “Oasis of Stability”
Despite the grim global forecast, the CEA maintained that India remains the fastest-growing major economy and is relatively better insulated.
- Growth Projection: Real GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 6.8%–7.2%, following an estimated 7.4% in FY26.
- Strong Buffers: With forex reserves covering 11 months of imports and a resilient banking sector, India is positioned to act as a buffer against global shocks.
- The “Valuation Paradox”: The Survey noted a disconnect where India’s strong fundamentals are not yet stopping the ₹22,500 crore FPI outflow seen in early January 2026, driven by global risk aversion and a strong US dollar.
4. Key Policy Directives
To navigate this “fractured” world, the Survey recommends:
- Building Macro Buffers: Increasing self-sufficiency in resources like copper and critical minerals.
- Strategic Indispensability: Leveraging India’s domestic demand to become a necessary partner in global trade.
- Addressing the AI Skill Gap: Ensuring the Indian workforce can adapt to AI disruption to prevent white-collar job losses in the IT sector.
Conclusion: A “Risk-Averse” World
The 2026 Economic Survey signals a shift from “optimistic growth” to “strategic resilience.” By explicitly quantifying the 10–20% risk of a 2008-like event, the Indian government is preparing the markets for a year where external volatility—not domestic weakness—will be the primary challenge for the Rupee and Indian equities.
